111 New Arnold St · Earlington, KY 42410

$44,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 736 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1879 0.31 ac lot Est $82k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

1 bed 1 bath> Great investment property.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Outdoor space
• Fruit trees

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR RETREAT
• FRUIT TREES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Gas range
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Has cooling; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $44k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($807 rent vs $44k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#175 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Hopkins County (town): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #65 of 165 in KY (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 122 units permitted in Hopkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($304 loan paydown + $813 appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Hopkins County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $44k implies a 214% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1879 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $42,680 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1879 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.68%
• DSCR: 2.63
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $81,696
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
308 S. Lee Trover Jr Hwy	0.46mi	2/1.0 (+1)	768 (+4%)	14mo	$85,000	$111	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $26,647
• Equity at exit: $16,996

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.25×
• Total profit: $64,656
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $12,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42410

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $807 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$231
• Tax from tax record: −$12 /mo · $139/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$169
• Net cashflow: $377

Break-even live

Break-even rent $330

Max offer price $44,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $401	-5% $389	+0% $377	+5% $364	+10% $352
Rent	-10% $313	-5% $345	+0% $377	+5% $408	+10% $440
Rate	-1.0pp $399	-0.5pp $388	base $377	+0.5pp $365	+1.0pp $354

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,000
• Closing costs: $1,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $44,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $44,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $44,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $44,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $44,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $44,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $44,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $44,000 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,000 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,000 Active 13 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,000 Active 12 DOM
18. 2026-05-18
    listed $44,000 Active
19. 2020-07-27
    soldstatus $14,000 43-char remark

    Show marketing remark (43 chars)

    1 bed 1 bath> Great investment property.

20. 1993-09-01
    soldstatus $7,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $139 · $12/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $378 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: +$239/yr (+$20/mo · 172.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,465
• − Property taxes: −$139
• − Insurance: −$220
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$774
• − Management: −$774
• − Depreciation: −$1,280
• Taxable income: $4,027
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$966
• After-tax cash flow: $3,552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hopkins County
• NCES district ID: 2102860
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $42,436
• Composite: 29.56/100
• National rank: #6488
• State rank: #65 of 165 in KY

Livability — Earlington

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #175
• US rank: #8758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Earlington, KY
• City population: 1,113
• Population (ZIP): 1,113

Population outlook (Hopkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,164 people
• By 2030: 44,083 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 41,650 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 39,303 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 34,567 · -23.5%
• By 2100: 29,476 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 24% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hopkins

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.9) · D 23.9% · R 74.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -24.9pp · 2024: -50.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.9 2020: R+48.0 2016: R+54.0 2012: R+39.9 2008: R+24.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.85%
• Current HPI: 87.8854
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+528.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $44,000 MHCBOR
• 2020-07-27 Sold (MLS) $14,000 MHCBOR
• 1993-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $139 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.