4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,744 sqft ·
Built 2020
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 98 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,710/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$881
Tax + insurance
−$568
HOA
−$10
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$569
Net cashflow
$682/mo
Annual
$8,188/yr
Cap rate
14.21%
Cash-on-cash
28.29%
DSCR
2.26
1% rule
1.61%
Cash to close
$47,040
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $168k. Condition is rated poor.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $682 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $168k).
It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $153k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#655 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
Charlotte (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #22 of 73 in FL (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Myakka River Elementary School (math 65% / reading 60%, grade B, #601 of 2,144 statewide, top 28%, 608 students, 51% FRL); L. A. Ainger Middle School (math 65% / reading 53%, grade B, #144 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 720 students, 40% FRL); Lemon Bay High School (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,360 students, 28% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 2541 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,585 units permitted in Charlotte County in 2024 (703 in 5+ unit buildings).
Charlotte County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
9 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $7k; list at $168k implies a 2300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.3% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 3.9% in Port Charlotte — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: Exterior fencing
— Overgrown vegetation and incomplete fencing
Major: Interior drywall
— Exposed framing and incomplete drywall
Major: Flooring
— Exposed concrete subfloor
Major: Plumbing and electrical wiring
— Exposed plumbing and electrical wiring
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