94 Thorncliff Rd

Spencerport, NY 14559

$259,900D

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,836 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,237/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$693
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-289/mo
• Annual: $-3,473/yr
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.77%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $72,772

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-289 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (19.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (13.9% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $209k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#237 in NY, #3,718 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Spencerport Central School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #248 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Canal View Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 442 students, 38% FRL); A M Cosgrove Middle School (math 32% / reading 53%, grade D-, #373 of 729 statewide, top 52%, 844 students, 39% FRL); Spencerport High School (math 95% / reading 96%, grade A+, #76 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,142 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 22% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $260k implies a 206% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.3% in Spencerport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.