3615 Spring Valley Rd

Lorena, TX 76655

$225,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,170/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$222
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $313/mo
• Annual: $3,752/yr
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.96%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (3.6% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $217k (3.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#325 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lorena ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #46 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lorena El (math 60% / reading 60%, grade B-, #398 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 415 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 16% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.9% in Lorena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.