3615 Spring Valley Rd · Lorena, TX 76655

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Manufactured public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2005 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lorena beauty situated on approximately 1 beautiful acre, this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,848 square feet of comfortable living space with the perfect blend of room, functionality, and peaceful country charm. With wide open outdoor space and a fully fenced chain-link yard, there’s plenty of room for pets, gatherings, gardening, or simply enjoying the outdoors. Inside, you’ll find a spacious living area perfect for relaxing or entertaining, along with a generously sized kitchen featuring abundant cabinetry, ample counter space, and a layout designed for everyday living. The split-bedroom floor plan offers added privacy, with a spacious primary suite complete with it

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• Private bath
• Solar panels

Tags

• FULLY FENCED YARD
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• GENEROUSLY SIZED KITCHEN
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE BATH
• SOLAR PANELS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 1 acre; Will not subdivide; Unknown encumbrance(s) noted
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA loan
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport with 2 covered spaces; Direct access; Electric gate; Gravel parking; No garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Aerobic septic / Septic; Rural water district; Electricity available; Phone available; Outside city limits; Gravel/rock access; Solar energy generation
• Home design: Mobile home (residential); One level; Shingle roof; Entry level on first floor
• Construction: Built in 2005; Siding exterior; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Rear porch; Chain link fence in back yard; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Pantry; Vented exhaust fan; Water line to refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Primary bedroom on level 1 with ensuite bath (garden tub, separate shower, dual sinks, separate vanities, walk-in closet); Primary bathroom on level 1 with built-in cabinets, garden tub and separate shower
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Kitchen island; Pantry; Double vanity; Built-in cabinets; Walk-in closet(s); Linen closet; Cable TV available; Room for freezer; Water line to refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (3.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.9% in Lorena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#325 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lorena ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #46 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lorena El (math 60% / reading 60%, grade B-, #398 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 415 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 16% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,004 (3.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.96%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-16,607
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $10,932
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76655

• Home prices YoY: -31.3%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,170 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,536/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,774

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $225,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $235,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $235,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $235,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $235,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $235,000 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-28
    listed $235,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,536 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,118 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,582/yr (+$215/mo · 168.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,536
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,083
• − Management: −$2,083
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $64
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$15
• After-tax cash flow: $3,737/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lorena ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828200
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $79,086
• Composite: 53.84/100
• National rank: #1412
• State rank: #46 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lorena

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #7155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 10,603
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,603
• Household income: $99,917
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 62.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.10%
• Current HPI: 230.4333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $235,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

-3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,536 · +15.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.