243 S Sierra Ave

Solana Beach, CA 92075

$1,699,900D+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,710 sqft · Built 1991 · Townhouse · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,103/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,914
• Tax + insurance: −$1,523
• HOA: −$325
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,912
• Net cashflow: $-3,571/mo
• Annual: $-42,853/yr
• Cap rate: 3.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.00%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $475,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $1.70M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-43k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.07M (37.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $910k (46.5% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.67M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $910k (46.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $63k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $51k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#81 in CA, #3,100 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D, cost of living F.
• Solana Beach Elementary (urban): math 82% / reading 86% proficiency, ranked #23 of 1,400 in CA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.7%/yr); 67 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$102k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 1.6% in Solana Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $9,103/mo this rent would consume 73% of the median local household income ($149k/yr) (locally 543% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.