Cumberland Plan

World Golf Village, FL 32092

$298,490F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,581 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 580 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,236/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,088
• Tax + insurance: −$664
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-985/mo
• Annual: $-11,817/yr
• Cap rate: 3.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.60%
• DSCR: 0.53
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $111,472

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $298k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-985 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (14.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (25.1% below list).
• It's been on market 580 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $224k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#168 in FL, #2,512 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mill Creek Academy (math 73% / reading 69%, grade A-, #320 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 1,893 students, 18% FRL); Pacetti Bay Middle School (math 77% / reading 72%, grade A, #40 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 1,443 students, 18% FRL); Allen D Nease Senior High School (math 72% / reading 78%, grade A-, #40 of 667 statewide, top 6%, 2,214 students, 4% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1335 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $76k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 580 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.