Cumberland Plan · World Golf Village, FL 32092

$298,490

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,581 sqft · SingleFamily · 580 Days on market

↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This active adult floor plan offers flexibility and spacious living. The home includes a two-car garage, a primary suite with a walk-in closet and en suite bath, and a secondary bedroom perfect for guests. An additional flex room provides even more versatility, easily functioning as a third bedroom, a home office, or an activity room. The open-concept kitchen, great room, and café seamlessly connect for a comfortable flow, while the lanai offers a relaxing outdoor space to enjoy.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 580 days

🏗️ New construction. The $298,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $398,156.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $298k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-985 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (14.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (25.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#168 in FL, #2,512 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mill Creek Academy (math 73% / reading 69%, grade A-, #320 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 1,893 students, 18% FRL); Pacetti Bay Middle School (math 77% / reading 72%, grade A, #40 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 1,443 students, 18% FRL); Allen D Nease Senior High School (math 72% / reading 78%, grade A-, #40 of 667 statewide, top 6%, 2,214 students, 4% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1335 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 580 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $76k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,611 (25.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 580 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.60%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $398,156
• List price: $298,490
• Delta: -25.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
909 Rustic Mill Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,581 (0%)	2mo	$360,000	$228	92
985 Rustic Mill Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,581 (0%)	1mo	$359,000	$227	89
80 Amberwood Dr	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,581 (0%)	2mo	$339,990	$215	83
157 Amberwood Dr	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,581 (0%)	1mo	$372,996	$236	80
1089 Rustic Mill Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,499 (-5%)	2mo	$350,000	$233	77
73 Bees Knees Way	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,793 (+13%)	1mo	$359,000	$200	61
179 Bees Knees Way	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,793 (+13%)	0mo	$323,500	$180	57
293 Applejack Dr	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,782 (+13%)	2mo	$405,000	$227	53
241 Applejack Dr	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,812 (+15%)	0mo	$399,990	$221	53
309 Applejack Dr	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,812 (+15%)	1mo	$379,990	$210	50
379 Applejack Dr	0.58mi	2/2.5	1,782 (+13%)	1mo	$371,990	$209	49
362 Applejack Dr	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,812 (+15%)	2mo	$419,001	$231	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-133,606
• Equity at exit: $59,366

10-year hold

• IRR: -80.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.99×
• Total profit: $-221,698
• Equity at exit: $34,425

Cash invested: $111,484 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32092

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 1335
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,236 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,088
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$498 /mo · $5,972/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-985

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,483

Max offer price $255,619

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-710	-5% $-847	+0% $-985	+5% $-1,123	+10% $-1,260
Rent	-10% $-1,162	-5% $-1,073	+0% $-985	+5% $-897	+10% $-808
Rate	-1.0pp $-785	-0.5pp $-884	base $-985	+0.5pp $-1,088	+1.0pp $-1,193

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,539
• Closing costs: $11,945
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
312 Clarys Run Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1864	$2,300	$1.23	25d	1	0.88mi
244 Patina Pl Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	2081	$2,995	$1.44	18d	1	0.93mi
234 Buck Run Way St. Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$2,200	$1.72	14d	1	0.94mi
137 Brays Island Ln Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1191	$1,869	$1.57	4d	1	0.96mi
252 Colorado Springs Way St. Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1701	$2,335	$1.37	19d	1	1.05mi
436 Bostwick Cir Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,200	$1.37	19d	1	1.06mi
136 Brookfall Dr Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1191	$2,000	$1.68	9d	1	1.07mi
391 Meadowlark Ln Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1768	$2,290	$1.30	5d	1	1.11mi
392 Bostwick Cir Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,220	$1.38	9d	1	1.17mi
801 Mackenzie Cir Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,974	$1.40	25d	1	1.24mi
801 Mackenzie Cir Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,974	$1.40	5d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $298,490 Active 580 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $298,490 Active 577 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $298,490 Active 576 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $298,490 Active 575 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $298,490 Active 574 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $298,490 Active 572 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $298,490 Active 571 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $298,490 Active 568 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $298,490 Active 567 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $298,490 Active 566 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $298,490 Active 562 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $298,490 Active 561 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $298,490 Active 560 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $298,490 Active 559 DOM
15. 2026-02-23
    status Active 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    This active adult floor plan offers flexibility and spacious living. The home includes a two-car garage, a primary suite with a walk-in closet and en suite bath, and a secondary bedroom perfect for guests. An additional flex room provides even more versatility, easily functioning as a third bedroom, a home office, or an activity room. The open-concept kitchen, great room, and café seamlessly connect for a comfortable flow, while the lanai offers a relaxing outdoor space to enjoy.

16. 2026-02-23
    historical 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    This active adult floor plan offers flexibility and spacious living. The home includes a two-car garage, a primary suite with a walk-in closet and en suite bath, and a secondary bedroom perfect for guests. An additional flex room provides even more versatility, easily functioning as a third bedroom, a home office, or an activity room. The open-concept kitchen, great room, and café seamlessly connect for a comfortable flow, while the lanai offers a relaxing outdoor space to enjoy.

17. 2026-01-20
    price $298,490 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    This active adult floor plan offers flexibility and spacious living. The home includes a two-car garage, a primary suite with a walk-in closet and en suite bath, and a secondary bedroom perfect for guests. An additional flex room provides even more versatility, easily functioning as a third bedroom, a home office, or an activity room. The open-concept kitchen, great room, and café seamlessly connect for a comfortable flow, while the lanai offers a relaxing outdoor space to enjoy.

18. 2025-06-21
    price $294,990 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    This active adult floor plan offers flexibility and spacious living. The home includes a two-car garage, a primary suite with a walk-in closet and en suite bath, and a secondary bedroom perfect for guests. An additional flex room provides even more versatility, easily functioning as a third bedroom, a home office, or an activity room. The open-concept kitchen, great room, and café seamlessly connect for a comfortable flow, while the lanai offers a relaxing outdoor space to enjoy.

19. 2024-11-20
    price $378,990 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    This active adult floor plan offers flexibility and spacious living. The home includes a two-car garage, a primary suite with a walk-in closet and en suite bath, and a secondary bedroom perfect for guests. An additional flex room provides even more versatility, easily functioning as a third bedroom, a home office, or an activity room. The open-concept kitchen, great room, and café seamlessly connect for a comfortable flow, while the lanai offers a relaxing outdoor space to enjoy.

20. 2024-11-18
    listed $373,990 Active 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    This active adult floor plan offers flexibility and spacious living. The home includes a two-car garage, a primary suite with a walk-in closet and en suite bath, and a secondary bedroom perfect for guests. An additional flex room provides even more versatility, easily functioning as a third bedroom, a home office, or an activity room. The open-concept kitchen, great room, and café seamlessly connect for a comfortable flow, while the lanai offers a relaxing outdoor space to enjoy.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,833
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,303
• − Property taxes: −$5,972
• − Insurance: −$1,991
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,147
• − Management: −$2,147
• − Depreciation: −$11,583
• Taxable loss: −$19,309
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,634
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,186/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — World Golf Village

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #2512

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: World Golf Village, FL
• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• City population: 48,288
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 53,071
• Household income: $131,020
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 706.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -123.26%
• Current HPI: 259.732
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.08%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-20.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-23 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $298,490 Zillow
• 2025-06-21 Price Changed $294,990 Zillow
• 2024-11-20 Price Changed $378,990 Zillow
• 2024-11-18 Listed $373,990 Zillow