445 Wilcox St

Warsaw, IL 62379

$39,500B+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 265 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,136/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$207
• Tax + insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $518/mo
• Annual: $6,216/yr
• Cap rate: 22.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.21%
• DSCR: 3.50
• 1% rule: 2.88%
• Cash to close: $11,060

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $518 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($273 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (8.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#459 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, employment D.
• Warsaw CUSD 316 (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #489 of 919 in IL (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.7% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP.
• Hancock County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (8.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.