445 Wilcox St · Warsaw, IL 62379

$39,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · SingleFamily · 265 Days on market

Built 1900 8,712 sqft lot $31/sqft · 64% below area ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property sets on a corner lot in a residential neighborhood in Warsaw. It was most recently used as a single family residence, but could also be used as a 2 unit rental investment. The main level consists of a kitchen with dining area, dining room, living room (possible bedroom), a bathroom with tub/shower combo, and a bedroom. The second level consists of a dining or living room, a kitchen with dining area, a bathroom with shower only, and 2 bedrooms. There is NG/FA heat and Central Air. Additional features include an enclosed side porch, an open front porch, and wooden deck on the side and back of the home. There is 2 car detached garage. A new roof was installed in 2024. Property will be selling in "AS IS" condition.

Key facts

• Enclosed side porch
• Open front porch
• Wooden deck

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• ENCLOSED SIDE PORCH
• OPEN FRONT PORCH
• WOODEN DECK
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $518 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#459 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, employment D.
• Warsaw CUSD 316 (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #489 of 919 in IL (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($273 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (8.0% local appreciation)).
• Hancock County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.7% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $34,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.21%
• DSCR: 3.50
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,087
• List price: $39,500
• Delta: -64.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
615 Webster	0.30mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,272 (0%)	3mo	$20,000	$16	74
415 Leclaire	0.13mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,324 (+4%)	18mo	$95,000	$72	63
859 Mulberry St	0.28mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,208 (-5%)	12mo	$79,500	$66	59
515 Clay St	0.44mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,170 (-8%)	5mo	$130,000	$111	55
855 Leclaire St	0.32mi	4/3.0	1,356 (+7%)	24mo	$195,500	$144	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.46×
• Total profit: $49,326
• Equity at exit: $29,985

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.1%
• Equity multiple: 11.74×
• Total profit: $118,766
• Equity at exit: $59,498

Cash invested: $11,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62379

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,136 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$207
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,866/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $518

Break-even live

Break-even rent $480

Max offer price $39,500

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,875
• Closing costs: $1,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,500 Active 265 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,500 Active 264 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,500 Active 263 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,500 Active 262 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,500 Active 260 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,500 Active 259 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,500 Active 256 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,500 Active 255 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,500 Active 254 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $39,500 Active 250 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,500 Active 249 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,500 Active 248 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,500 Active 247 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,500 Active 246 DOM
15. 2026-02-04
    soldstatus $30,000 Closed 752-char remark

    Show marketing remark (752 chars)

    This property sets on a corner lot in a residential neighborhood in Warsaw. It was most recently used as a single family residence, but could also be used as a 2 unit rental investment. The main level consists of a kitchen with dining area, dining room, living room (possible bedroom), a bathroom with tub/shower combo, and a bedroom. The second level consists of a dining or living room, a kitchen with dining area, a bathroom with shower only, and 2 bedrooms. There is NG/FA heat and Central Air. Additional features include an enclosed side porch, an open front porch, and wooden deck on the side and back of the home. There is 2 car detached garage. A new roof was installed in 2024. Property will be selling in "AS IS" condition.

16. 2026-01-09
    status Pending 752-char remark

    Show marketing remark (752 chars)

    This property sets on a corner lot in a residential neighborhood in Warsaw. It was most recently used as a single family residence, but could also be used as a 2 unit rental investment. The main level consists of a kitchen with dining area, dining room, living room (possible bedroom), a bathroom with tub/shower combo, and a bedroom. The second level consists of a dining or living room, a kitchen with dining area, a bathroom with shower only, and 2 bedrooms. There is NG/FA heat and Central Air. Additional features include an enclosed side porch, an open front porch, and wooden deck on the side and back of the home. There is 2 car detached garage. A new roof was installed in 2024. Property will be selling in "AS IS" condition.

17. 2026-01-07
    price $34,000 752-char remark

    Show marketing remark (752 chars)

    This property sets on a corner lot in a residential neighborhood in Warsaw. It was most recently used as a single family residence, but could also be used as a 2 unit rental investment. The main level consists of a kitchen with dining area, dining room, living room (possible bedroom), a bathroom with tub/shower combo, and a bedroom. The second level consists of a dining or living room, a kitchen with dining area, a bathroom with shower only, and 2 bedrooms. There is NG/FA heat and Central Air. Additional features include an enclosed side porch, an open front porch, and wooden deck on the side and back of the home. There is 2 car detached garage. A new roof was installed in 2024. Property will be selling in "AS IS" condition.

18. 2025-11-21
    price $39,500 745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (752 chars)

    This property sets on a corner lot in a residential neighborhood in Warsaw. It was most recently used as a single family residence, but could also be used as a 2 unit rental investment. The main level consists of a kitchen with dining area, dining room, living room (possible bedroom), a bathroom with tub/shower combo, and a bedroom. The second level consists of a dining or living room, a kitchen with dining area, a bathroom with shower only, and 2 bedrooms. There is NG/FA heat and Central Air. Additional features include an enclosed side porch, an open front porch, and wooden deck on the side and back of the home. There is 2 car detached garage. A new roof was installed in 2024. Property will be selling in "AS IS" condition.

19. 2025-11-21
    price $39,500 752-char remark

    Show marketing remark (752 chars)

    This property sets on a corner lot in a residential neighborhood in Warsaw. It was most recently used as a single family residence, but could also be used as a 2 unit rental investment. The main level consists of a kitchen with dining area, dining room, living room (possible bedroom), a bathroom with tub/shower combo, and a bedroom. The second level consists of a dining or living room, a kitchen with dining area, a bathroom with shower only, and 2 bedrooms. There is NG/FA heat and Central Air. Additional features include an enclosed side porch, an open front porch, and wooden deck on the side and back of the home. There is 2 car detached garage. A new roof was installed in 2024. Property will be selling in "AS IS" condition.

20. 2025-10-27
    price $46,000 745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (752 chars)

    This property sets on a corner lot in a residential neighborhood in Warsaw. It was most recently used as a single family residence, but could also be used as a 2 unit rental investment. The main level consists of a kitchen with dining area, dining room, living room (possible bedroom), a bathroom with tub/shower combo, and a bedroom. The second level consists of a dining or living room, a kitchen with dining area, a bathroom with shower only, and 2 bedrooms. There is NG/FA heat and Central Air. Additional features include an enclosed side porch, an open front porch, and wooden deck on the side and back of the home. There is 2 car detached garage. A new roof was installed in 2024. Property will be selling in "AS IS" condition.

21. 2025-10-27
    price $46,000 752-char remark

    Show marketing remark (752 chars)

    This property sets on a corner lot in a residential neighborhood in Warsaw. It was most recently used as a single family residence, but could also be used as a 2 unit rental investment. The main level consists of a kitchen with dining area, dining room, living room (possible bedroom), a bathroom with tub/shower combo, and a bedroom. The second level consists of a dining or living room, a kitchen with dining area, a bathroom with shower only, and 2 bedrooms. There is NG/FA heat and Central Air. Additional features include an enclosed side porch, an open front porch, and wooden deck on the side and back of the home. There is 2 car detached garage. A new roof was installed in 2024. Property will be selling in "AS IS" condition.

22. 2025-09-26
    listed $49,900 Active 745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (752 chars)

    This property sets on a corner lot in a residential neighborhood in Warsaw. It was most recently used as a single family residence, but could also be used as a 2 unit rental investment. The main level consists of a kitchen with dining area, dining room, living room (possible bedroom), a bathroom with tub/shower combo, and a bedroom. The second level consists of a dining or living room, a kitchen with dining area, a bathroom with shower only, and 2 bedrooms. There is NG/FA heat and Central Air. Additional features include an enclosed side porch, an open front porch, and wooden deck on the side and back of the home. There is 2 car detached garage. A new roof was installed in 2024. Property will be selling in "AS IS" condition.

23. 2025-09-26
    listed $49,900 Active 752-char remark

    Show marketing remark (752 chars)

    This property sets on a corner lot in a residential neighborhood in Warsaw. It was most recently used as a single family residence, but could also be used as a 2 unit rental investment. The main level consists of a kitchen with dining area, dining room, living room (possible bedroom), a bathroom with tub/shower combo, and a bedroom. The second level consists of a dining or living room, a kitchen with dining area, a bathroom with shower only, and 2 bedrooms. There is NG/FA heat and Central Air. Additional features include an enclosed side porch, an open front porch, and wooden deck on the side and back of the home. There is 2 car detached garage. A new roof was installed in 2024. Property will be selling in "AS IS" condition.

24. 2024-10-18
    soldstatus $24,000 Closed
25. 2024-10-18
    soldstatus $24,000
26. 2024-10-18
    soldstatus $24,000
27. 2024-09-23
    historical Active Under Contract
28. 2024-08-17
    listed $29,900 Active
29. 2024-08-17
    listed $29,900
30. 2024-06-26
    price $42,500
31. 2024-04-26
    price $45,000
32. 2023-12-07
    listed $52,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,866 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,866 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,628
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,213
• − Property taxes: −$1,866
• − Insurance: −$198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,090
• − Management: −$1,090
• − Depreciation: −$1,149
• Taxable income: $6,022
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,445
• After-tax cash flow: $4,771/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warsaw CUSD 316
• NCES district ID: 1740890
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,724
• Composite: 28.9/100
• National rank: #11950
• State rank: #489 of 919 in IL

Livability — Warsaw

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #459
• US rank: #9523

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warsaw, IL
• Population (ZIP): 1,828

Population outlook (Hancock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,042 people
• By 2030: 16,056 · -5.8%
• By 2040: 13,912 · -18.4%
• By 2050: 11,879 · -30.3%
• By 2075: 8,302 · -51.3%
• By 2100: 5,846 · -65.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hancock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.0) · D 24.1% · R 74.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.8pp · 2024: -50.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.0 2020: R+48.9 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+19.0 2008: R+10.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.99%
• Current HPI: 150.9375
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-43.3% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Sold (MLS) $30,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $34,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $39,500 Quincy AOR
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $39,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $46,000 Quincy AOR
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $46,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-26 Listed $49,900 Quincy AOR
• 2025-09-26 Listed $49,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records
• 2024-10-18 Sold (MLS) $24,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-18 Sold (MLS) $24,000 Quincy AOR
• 2024-09-23 Contingent — Quincy AOR
• 2024-08-17 Listed $29,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-17 Listed $29,900 Quincy AOR
• 2024-06-26 Price Changed $42,500 IAR
• 2024-04-26 Price Changed $45,000 IAR
• 2023-12-07 Listed $52,900 IAR

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,866 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.