9411 Lemon Drop Loop

Apollo Beach, FL 33573

$379,000D-

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,614 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 248 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,953/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,988
• Tax + insurance: −$1,015
• HOA: −$13
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-683/mo
• Annual: $-8,194/yr
• Cap rate: 4.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.72%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $106,120

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $379k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-683 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (31.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (22.1% below list).
• It's been on market 248 days — a 12% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $258k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#333 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Belmont Elementary School (math 42% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 987 students, 44% FRL); East Bay High School (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 1,995 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 808 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 86d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.0% in Apollo Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,953/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 248 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?