9411 Lemon Drop Loop · Apollo Beach, FL 33573

$379,000

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,614 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 203 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 0.26 ac lot $145/sqft · 9% below area Est $415k · 9% under $13/mo HOA ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price Improvement to Sell! Welcome to a home that truly has it all—space, upgrades, privacy, and a vibrant community to enjoy it in. Just three years young, this beautifully maintained six-bedroom, three-bath residence sits proudly on an oversized corner lot offering more than ¼ acre of fully fenced outdoor living—a rare find in Southshore! Step inside from the covered front porch and you’re greeted by a grand foyer with a direct view to the expansive backyard. The heart of the home unfolds just beyond: a gourmet kitchen with granite countertops, subway tile backsplash, upgraded lighting, a gas range, a massive walk-in pantry, and an island that seats five. The open kitchen, dining, and living areas create the perfect setting for gatherings, celebrations, or quiet mornings with coffee. A full bedroom and bathroom downstairs provide ideal accommodations for guests or anyone avoiding stairs. Upstairs, a spacious loft offers endless possibilities—game room, second living area, home gym, or creative space. The owner’s retreat is bright and generous, complete with a spa-like ensuite and walk-in closet. All secondary bedrooms are impressively sized, with two enjoying peaceful pond views. The upstairs bath features double sinks and a separate tub/shower area for easy morning routines. Laundry is conveniently located upstairs, with washer and dryer included. Outside, the vinyl-fenced yard offers privacy and room to play, garden, or entertain. The community adds even more to love—multiple pools, sport courts, playgrounds, and lively neighborhood events like Food Truck Thursdays. With golf, dining, shopping, and major highways nearby, convenience is always at your doorstep. This spacious, move-in-ready home is vacant and waiting for you to make it yours!

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $379k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-583 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (27.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $308k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.9% in Apollo Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#333 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Belmont Elementary School (math 42% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 987 students, 44% FRL); East Bay High School (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 1,995 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 41d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,079/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 203 days — a 12% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $275,997 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 203 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.59%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $414,625
• List price: $379,000
• Delta: -8.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9633 Channing Hill Dr	0.45mi	6/3.0	2,614 (0%)	0mo	$345,000	$132	79
9823 Lemon Drop Loop	0.22mi	6/3.0	3,130 (+20%)	0mo	$490,000	$157	64
9752 Crescent Moon Dr	0.68mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,597 (-1%)	2mo	$463,620	$179	61
9837 Sage Creek Dr	0.39mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,964 (+13%)	1mo	$435,000	$147	54
15415 Long Cypress Dr	1.33mi	6/3.5	2,777 (+6%)	2mo	$425,500	$153	51
9648 Sage Creek Dr	0.63mi	6/3.0	3,153 (+21%)	2mo	$396,000	$126	44
10205 Stedfast Ct	1.14mi	6/4.0	3,153 (+21%)	2mo	$481,000	$153	35
7328 Paradiso Dr	1.03mi	5/4.0 (-1)	3,174 (+21%)	2mo	$915,000	$288	30
13721 Brookside Haven St	1.19mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,946 (+13%)	11mo	$578,760	$196	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-99,341
• Equity at exit: $56,510

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-137,548
• Equity at exit: $32,769

Cash invested: $106,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 9 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.8 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $481,700 ($181/sqft)
• Median days on market: 20 d
• This list price: 22% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -12.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33573

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,079 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,988
• Tax from tax record: −$857 /mo · $10,285/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$647
• Net cashflow: $-583

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,817

Max offer price $275,997

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-369	-5% $-476	+0% $-583	+5% $-690	+10% $-798
Rent	-10% $-826	-5% $-705	+0% $-583	+5% $-461	+10% $-340
Rate	-1.0pp $-392	-0.5pp $-487	base $-583	+0.5pp $-681	+1.0pp $-781

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,750
• Closing costs: $11,370
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9454 Channing Hill Dr Ruskin, FL	5.0	2.5	2902	$2,900	$1.00	40d	1	0.23mi
9835 Ivory Dr Sun City Center, FL	5.0	3.5	2466	$2,641	$1.07	61d	1	0.44mi
9648 Sage Creek Dr Sun City Center, FL	6.0	3.0	3153	$3,000	$0.95	113d	1	0.64mi
9632 Sage Creek Dr Ruskin, FL	6.0	3.0	3326	$2,726	$0.82	40d	1	0.68mi
10020 Newminster Loop Ruskin, FL	5.0	3.5	2200	$2,369	$1.08	40d	1	0.98mi
10363 Shady Preserve Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	2.5	2415	$2,600	$1.08	7d	1	1.35mi
5612 Limelight Dr Apollo Beach, FL	5.0	4.0	3245	$4,000	$1.23	106d	1	1.43mi
15403 Quail Woods Pl Ruskin, FL	5.0	2.5	2210	$2,310	$1.05	4d	1	1.47mi
8109 Orange Spring Dr Ruskin, FL	5.0	4.0	3481	$3,231	$0.93	5d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail $13/mo · $156/yr

• Likely covers: gaslandscapingpoolgym

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $379,000 Active 203 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $379,000 Active 202 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $379,000 Active 201 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $379,000 Active 200 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $379,000 Active 199 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $379,000 Active 198 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $379,000 Active 197 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $379,000 Active 196 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $379,000 Active 195 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $379,000 Active 194 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $379,000 Active 193 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $379,000 Active 192 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $379,000 Active 191 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $379,000 Active 190 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $379,000 Active 184 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    price $379,000 Active 183 DOM
17. 2026-09-04
    days on market $399,000 Active 183 DOM
18. 2026-09-03
    days on market $399,000 Active 182 DOM
19. 2026-08-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 179 DOM
20. 2026-08-30
    days on market $399,000 Active 178 DOM
21. 2026-08-29
    days on market $399,000 Active 177 DOM
22. 2026-08-28
    days on market $399,000 Active 176 DOM
23. 2026-08-27
    days on market $399,000 Active 175 DOM
24. 2026-08-26
    days on market $399,000 Active 174 DOM
25. 2026-08-25
    days on market $399,000 Active 173 DOM
26. 2026-08-24
    days on market $399,000 Active 172 DOM
27. 2026-08-23
    days on market $399,000 Active 171 DOM
28. 2026-08-22
    days on market $399,000 Active 170 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $399,000 Active 168 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $399,000 Active 167 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    price $399,000 Active 166 DOM
32. 2026-08-18
    days on market $415,000 Active 166 DOM
33. 2026-08-17
    days on market $415,000 Active 165 DOM
34. 2026-08-16
    days on market $415,000 Active 164 DOM
35. 2026-08-15
    days on market $415,000 Active 163 DOM
36. 2026-08-14
    days on market $415,000 Active 162 DOM
37. 2026-08-13
    days on market $415,000 Active 161 DOM
38. 2026-08-12
    days on market $415,000 Active 160 DOM
39. 2026-08-11
    days on market $415,000 Active 159 DOM
40. 2026-08-10
    days on market $415,000 Active 158 DOM
41. 2026-08-09
    days on market $415,000 Active 157 DOM
42. 2026-08-08
    days on market $415,000 Active 156 DOM
43. 2026-08-06
    days on market $415,000 Active 154 DOM
44. 2026-08-05
    days on market $415,000 Active 153 DOM
45. 2026-08-04
    days on market $415,000 Active 152 DOM
46. 2026-08-03
    pricedays on market $415,000 Active 151 DOM
47. 2026-07-31
    days on market $429,000 Active 148 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $429,000 Active 146 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $429,000 Active 145 DOM
50. 2026-07-26
    days on market $429,000 Active 143 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,285 · $857/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,285 · $857/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,948
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,230
• − Property taxes: −$10,285
• − Insurance: −$1,895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,956
• − Management: −$2,956
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$11,025
• Taxable loss: −$13,555
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,253
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,744/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $13,070–$39,210 screening

This well-maintained, three-year-old home with six bedrooms and three bathrooms offers a spacious and private living environment in a vibrant community. The exterior and interior are in good condition, with minor cosmetic updates recommended to enhance curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bedrooms — Improves aesthetics and adds value ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mullen Elementary School F NY #1,444/2,108 Nat'l #19,648/41,679 High East Bay High School F FL #447/667 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Apollo Beach

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #5784

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apollo Beach, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,607,022 people
• City population: 26,495
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,362
• Household income: $72,834
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.27%
• Current HPI: 272.9767
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.65%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $435,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Listed $439,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $429,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $435,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-06 Listed $445,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,285 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.