134 Carnival Dr

Taneytown, MD 21787

$150,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,098 sqft · Built 1986 · Townhouse · Active · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,577/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$234
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $225/mo
• Annual: $2,704/yr
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.44%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $225 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#149 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Carroll County Public Schools (suburban): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #2 of 24 in MD (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 156 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carroll County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $150k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 1.8% in Taneytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.