134 Carnival Dr · Taneytown, MD 21787

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,098 sqft · Townhouse public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1986 2,134 sqft lot $137/sqft · 25% below area Est $201k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Price! Investor Alert! This house is tenant occupied and needs renovations. It is a great rental, tenant would like to stay. Instant income of $1692.00 per month. 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath townhome. House will not pass FHA or VA financing requirements. Great location, so close to downtown Taneytown, the library, parks, dining and shopping.

Key facts

• Needs renovations
• Shopping
• Library

Tags

• NEEDS RENOVATIONS
• CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN
• LIBRARY
• PARKS
• DINING
• SHOPPING

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $150,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$201,269) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $225 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 1.8% in Taneytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#149 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Carroll County Public Schools (suburban): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #2 of 24 in MD (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 156 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carroll County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $150k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.44%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,269
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -25.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 Carnival Dr	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,032 (-6%)	5mo	$225,000	$218	80
149 Grand Dr	0.03mi	3/1.5	1,188 (+8%)	7mo	$200,000	$168	77
113 Grand Dr	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,032 (-6%)	11mo	$202,000	$196	76
121 Carnival Dr	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,032 (-6%)	11mo	$225,000	$218	76
404 Red Tulip Ct	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,152 (+5%)	0mo	$230,000	$200	71
417 Red Tulip Ct	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,160 (+6%)	2mo	$229,900	$198	67
526 Daisy Dr	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,152 (+5%)	1mo	$220,000	$191	66
423 Clover Ct	0.55mi	3/—	1,152 (+5%)	3mo	$230,000	$200	64
443 Red Tulip Ct	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,152 (+5%)	10mo	$228,000	$198	61
505 Chestnut Ct	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,152 (+5%)	8mo	$212,000	$184	61
6 Courtland St	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (+5%)	10mo	$214,000	$186	48
3 Courtland St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,208 (+10%)	3mo	$216,000	$179	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-9,943
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $9,875
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21787

• Home prices YoY: -34.0%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,577 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,055/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $225

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,292

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $310	-5% $268	+0% $225	+5% $183	+10% $140
Rent	-10% $101	-5% $163	+0% $225	+5% $288	+10% $350
Rate	-1.0pp $301	-0.5pp $263	base $225	+0.5pp $186	+1.0pp $147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
104 Grand Dr Taneytown, MD	2.0	1.0	848	$1,286	$1.52	1d	1	0.11mi
75 Grand Dr Taneytown, MD	3.0	1.5	1032	$1,850	$1.79	18d	1	0.16mi
3 Courtland St Unit 3 Taneytown, MD	2.0	1.0	1208	$1,900	$1.57	4d	1	0.67mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $150,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-18
    price $150,000 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    New Price! Investor Alert! This house is tenant occupied and needs renovations. It is a great rental, tenant would like to stay. Instant income of $1692.00 per month. 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath townhome. House will not pass FHA or VA financing requirements. Great location, so close to downtown Taneytown, the library, parks, dining and shopping.

15. 2026-04-22
    listed $175,000 Active 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    New Price! Investor Alert! This house is tenant occupied and needs renovations. It is a great rental, tenant would like to stay. Instant income of $1692.00 per month. 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath townhome. House will not pass FHA or VA financing requirements. Great location, so close to downtown Taneytown, the library, parks, dining and shopping.

16. 2015-05-10
    historical
17. 2015-05-10
    historical Expired
18. 2014-11-10
    listed Active
19. 2014-11-10
    listed $97,000
20. 2006-12-31
    historical
21. 2006-08-02
    listed
22. 2003-05-12
    soldstatus $77,500
23. 2003-05-06
    soldstatus $77,500
24. 2003-03-16
    historical
25. 2002-10-04
    listed $79,000
26. 2000-06-09
    soldstatus $85,000
27. 2000-06-09
    listed $85,000
28. 2000-05-09
    soldstatus $85,000
29. 1995-06-28
    soldstatus $1,350,000
30. 1995-06-28
    soldstatus $1,350,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,055 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,055 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,921
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,055
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,514
• − Management: −$1,514
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $323
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$78
• After-tax cash flow: $2,626/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carroll County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400210
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $84,594
• Composite: 37.33/100
• National rank: #4441
• State rank: #2 of 24 in MD

Livability — Taneytown

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #6550

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime D+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Taneytown, MD
• Population (ZIP): 11,549

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,677 people
• By 2030: 169,605 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 166,205 · -2.0%
• By 2050: 158,312 · -6.7%
• By 2075: 143,013 · -15.7%
• By 2100: 122,431 · -27.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.2% · R 61.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.2pp toward D · 2008: -31.2pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+23.7 2016: R+36.9 2012: R+34.0 2008: R+31.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -132.27%
• Current HPI: 257.2289
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-88.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $150,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-05-10 Delisted — MRIS
• 2015-05-10 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-11-10 Listed — MRIS
• 2014-11-10 Listed $97,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-12-31 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-08-02 Listed — MRIS
• 2003-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $77,500 Public Records
• 2003-05-06 Sold (MLS) $77,500 MRIS
• 2003-03-16 Delisted — MRIS
• 2002-10-04 Listed $79,000 MRIS
• 2000-06-09 Listed $85,000 MRIS
• 2000-06-09 Sold (MLS) $85,000 MRIS
• 2000-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1995-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $1,350,000 Public Records
• 1995-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $1,350,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,055 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.