18 Ranney Hill Rd

Bridgewater, CT 06783

$2,000,000D-

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,198 sqft · Built 2018 · SingleFamily · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $16,866/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,488
• Tax + insurance: −$1,683
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,542
• Net cashflow: $1,152/mo
• Annual: $13,828/yr
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.47%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $560,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $2.00M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.69M (15.7% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.94M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.69M (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $14k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $60k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Regional School District 12 (rural): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #20 of 153 in CT (top 13%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Booth Free School (math 64% / reading 74%, grade A-, #78 of 553 statewide, top 17%, 73 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 154 units permitted in Northwest Hills Planning Region in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $850k; list at $2.00M implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.9% in Bridgewater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.