1412 North Ave

Burlington, VT 05408

$410,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,365 sqft · Built 1944 · SingleFamily · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,030/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax + insurance: −$647
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$636
• Net cashflow: $-403/mo
• Annual: $-4,839/yr
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.21%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $114,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $410k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-403 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $339k (17.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $303k (26.1% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $303k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in VT, #4,619 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, schools B; Watch: cost of living D, crime F, amenities F.
• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 898 units permitted in Chittenden County in 2024 (554 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chittenden County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $209k; list at $410k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.1% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.