1412 North Ave · Burlington, VT 05408

$410,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,365 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1944 7,405 sqft lot $300/sqft · 21% below area Est $517k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Could be single family This duplex has been updated Vermont Housing / City inspected for the last 10 years +/- Rental will include a single bay garage. The remaining garage is rented. Downstairs unit has nice hardwood floors and front porch. Upstairs apt has private deck. Basement entrance is on the side porch. There are 2 separate washer and dryer hook ups. Gas heat and hot water. Power to the garage is hooked up to the ground floor unit. The owner is a licensed Real Estate broker

Key facts

• Second level deck
• Fenced in backyard
• Front and side porch

Tags

• FENCED IN BACKYARD
• LARGE 3 BAY GARAGE
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FRONT AND SIDE PORCH
• SECOND LEVEL DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 100 Amp electrical service; On-site gas; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Cape-style home; Existing construction; Entry facing information not provided
• Construction: Built in 1944; Wood frame construction; Rolled and asphalt/shingle roofing
• Exterior features: City lot; Publicly maintained road frontage (50 ft); Gravel driveway

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Direct vent system; Hot air (forced air) heating
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Basement with interior stair access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-403 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $339k (17.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $303k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $303k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.1% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in VT, #4,619 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, schools B; Watch: cost of living D, crime F, amenities F.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 898 units permitted in Chittenden County in 2024 (554 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chittenden County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $209k; list at $410k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $302,971 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.21%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $516,651
• List price: $410,000
• Delta: -20.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
70 Dodds Ct	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,344 (-2%)	2mo	$515,000	$383	81
45 Green Acres Dr	0.17mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,350 (-1%)	3mo	$260,000	$193	79
397 Ethan Allen Pkwy	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,344 (-2%)	3mo	$525,000	$391	69
64 Moore Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	5mo	$435,000	$324	66
6 Gazo Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,332 (-2%)	4mo	$344,400	$259	64
63 Birch Ct	0.19mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,208 (-12%)	2mo	$450,000	$373	64
115 Dodds Ct	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,220 (-11%)	7mo	$450,000	$369	60
76 Woodbury Rd	0.17mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,549 (+14%)	5mo	$410,000	$265	59
149 Shore Rd	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,240 (-9%)	5mo	$480,000	$387	58
54 Faith St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,196 (-12%)	6mo	$482,500	$403	50
104 Cottage Grv	0.33mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,184 (-13%)	7mo	$240,000	$203	50
15 Blondin Cir	0.58mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,504 (+10%)	1mo	$480,000	$319	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-92,096
• Equity at exit: $61,132

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-113,170
• Equity at exit: $35,449

Cash invested: $114,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05408

• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,030 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax from tax record: −$476 /mo · $5,709/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$636
• Net cashflow: $-403

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,540

Max offer price $338,770

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,500
• Closing costs: $12,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1540 North Ave Burlington, VT	3.0	1.5	1220	$2,600	$2.13	44d	1	0.24mi
38 Marshall Dr Burlington, VT	3.0	2.0	1168	$3,250	$2.78	44d	1	0.25mi
108 Lopes Ave Burlington, VT	4.0	1.5	1600	$3,900	$2.44	44d	1	0.44mi
18 Valade St Burlington, VT	2.0	1.0	1080	$2,400	$2.22	21d	1	0.60mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $410,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $410,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $410,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on marketlisting id $410,000 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $410,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $410,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $410,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $410,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $410,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $410,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $410,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $410,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $410,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $410,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $410,000 Active 32 DOM

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Could be single family This duplex has been updated Vermont Housing / City inspected for the last 10 years +/- Rental will include a single bay garage. The remaining garage is rented. Downstairs unit has nice hardwood floors and front porch. Upstairs apt has private deck. Basement entrance is on the side porch. There are 2 separate washer and dryer hook ups. Gas heat and hot water. Power to the garage is hooked up to the ground floor unit. The owner is a licensed Real Estate broker

16. 2026-06-01
    price $410,000 Active 31 DOM

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Could be single family This duplex has been updated Vermont Housing / City inspected for the last 10 years +/- Rental will include a single bay garage. The remaining garage is rented. Downstairs unit has nice hardwood floors and front porch. Upstairs apt has private deck. Basement entrance is on the side porch. There are 2 separate washer and dryer hook ups. Gas heat and hot water. Power to the garage is hooked up to the ground floor unit. The owner is a licensed Real Estate broker

17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 31 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $399,000 Active 30 DOM
19. 2026-05-13
    price $425,000 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Could be single family This duplex has been updated Vermont Housing / City inspected for the last 10 years +/- Rental will include a single bay garage. The remaining garage is rented. Downstairs unit has nice hardwood floors and front porch. Upstairs apt has private deck. Basement entrance is on the side porch. There are 2 separate washer and dryer hook ups. Gas heat and hot water. Power to the garage is hooked up to the ground floor unit. The owner is a licensed Real Estate broker

20. 2026-04-30
    listed $450,000 Active 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Could be single family This duplex has been updated Vermont Housing / City inspected for the last 10 years +/- Rental will include a single bay garage. The remaining garage is rented. Downstairs unit has nice hardwood floors and front porch. Upstairs apt has private deck. Basement entrance is on the side porch. There are 2 separate washer and dryer hook ups. Gas heat and hot water. Power to the garage is hooked up to the ground floor unit. The owner is a licensed Real Estate broker

21. 2025-08-26
    price $399,900
22. 2025-07-29
    price $425,000
23. 2024-08-16
    price $450,000
24. 2024-08-01
    price $474,000
25. 2024-07-14
    price $475,000
26. 2024-06-24
    price $495,000
27. 2005-12-28
    soldstatus $209,000
28. 2005-12-23
    soldstatus $209,000
29. 2005-07-12
    listed $210,000
30. 2001-10-22
    soldstatus $144,000
31. 2001-10-19
    soldstatus $144,000
32. 2001-08-23
    listed $144,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,709 · $476/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,750 · $562/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,040/yr (+$87/mo · 18.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,357
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,966
• − Property taxes: −$5,709
• − Insurance: −$2,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,909
• − Management: −$2,909
• − Depreciation: −$11,927
• Taxable loss: −$12,113
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,907
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,931/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Burlington

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment B Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burlington, VT
• City population: 31,662
• Population (ZIP): 10,199

Population outlook (Chittenden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 170,769 people
• By 2030: 174,716 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 180,337 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 183,768 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 194,646 · +14.0%
• By 2100: 194,933 · +14.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Slovak 5% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chittenden

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 75.4% · R 21.7% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: 44.8pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+54.5 2016: D+46.8 2012: D+41.9 2008: D+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.09%
• Current HPI: 319.5442
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+183.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $410,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $410,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-05-24 Price Changed $399,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $425,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $450,000 PrimeMLS
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $399,900 PrimeMLS
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $425,000 PrimeMLS
• 2024-08-16 Price Changed $450,000 PrimeMLS
• 2024-08-01 Price Changed $474,000 PrimeMLS
• 2024-07-14 Price Changed $475,000 PrimeMLS
• 2024-06-24 Price Changed $495,000 PrimeMLS
• 2005-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $209,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-23 Sold (MLS) $209,000 PrimeMLS
• 2005-07-12 Listed $210,000 PrimeMLS
• 2001-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $144,000 Public Records
• 2001-10-19 Sold (MLS) $144,000 PrimeMLS
• 2001-08-23 Listed $144,900 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+24.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $5,709 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.