2511 W Queen Creek Rd #337

Chandler, AZ 85248

$450,000D

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,346 sqft · Built 2016 · Condo · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,675/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax + insurance: −$325
• HOA: −$592
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$772
• Net cashflow: $-374/mo
• Annual: $-4,483/yr
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.56%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $126,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-374 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $384k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $367k (18.3% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $367k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#9 in AZ, #2,508 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, cost of living D-.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Anna Marie Jacobson Elementary School (math 61% / reading 71%, grade B+, #82 of 1,109 statewide, top 8%, 675 students, 22% FRL); Bogle Junior High School (math 43% / reading 52%, grade C-, #36 of 218 statewide, top 18%, 1,151 students, 26% FRL); Hamilton High School (math 52% / reading 49%, grade D+, #36 of 381 statewide, top 9%, 3,850 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.3% in Chandler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,675/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($94k/yr) (locally 1107% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?