2511 W Queen Creek Rd #337 · Chandler, AZ 85248

$450,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,346 sqft · Condo public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2016 $334/sqft · 32% below area Est $665k · 32% under · waterfront $592/mo HOA · 16% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful luxury lakefront condo in the heart of downtown Ocotillo, offering resort-style living at its finest. This 2-bedroom residence features a rare private tandem parking space in a secure, gated garage plus a private large storage room, worth over $20,000. Water softener, R/O water purifier. The building is undergoing upgrades to its common areas, bringing bright, modern, high-end finishes throughout. Residents enjoy an impressive suite of amenities, including a boutique fitness center, steam room, clubhouse, technology center, media room, game room, and a gourmet kitchen perfect for private events and social gatherings. Outdoors, relax by the heated pool and spa or take a stroll alo

Key facts

• Gated garage
• Steam room
• Lakefront condo

Tags

• LAKEFRONT CONDO
• PRIVATE TANDEM PARKING
• GATED GARAGE
• UPGRADES TO COMMON AREAS
• BOUTIQUE FITNESS CENTER
• STEAM ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area and lot size sourced from assessor
• Financial info: Currently financed with conventional loan (non-assumable)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Additional quarterly association fee; Association covers roof repair and replacement, insurance, sewer, cable TV, grounds maintenance, street maintenance, trash, water, and exterior maintenance; Community amenities include pool, heated community spa, pickleball courts, tennis courts, lake, fitness center, community media room, biking/walking paths, and proximity to bus stop

Exterior

• Parking: Covered tandem garage with 2 spaces; Gated parking; Assigned parking with permit required
• Security: Fire sprinkler system
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Apartment (attached property); Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction; Tile and built-up roof
• Exterior features: Balcony; Wrought iron fencing; Gravel/stone front and back; Private maintained road; Heated spa

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Garbage disposal; Pantry; Breakfast bar; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Double vanity; Breakfast bar; Pantry; 3/4 bath in master bedroom; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-374 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $384k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $367k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $367k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.3% in Chandler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#9 in AZ, #2,508 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, cost of living D-.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Anna Marie Jacobson Elementary School (math 61% / reading 71%, grade B+, #82 of 1,109 statewide, top 8%, 675 students, 22% FRL); Bogle Junior High School (math 43% / reading 52%, grade C-, #36 of 218 statewide, top 18%, 1,151 students, 26% FRL); Hamilton High School (math 52% / reading 49%, grade D+, #36 of 381 statewide, top 9%, 3,850 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,675/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($94k/yr) (locally 1107% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $367,473 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.56%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $665,223
• List price: $450,000
• Delta: -32.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-102,377
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-142,281
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85248

• Home prices YoY: -23.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,675 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,647/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$592
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$772
• Net cashflow: $-374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,148

Max offer price $384,010

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-119	-5% $-246	+0% $-374	+5% $-501	+10% $-628
Rent	-10% $-664	-5% $-519	+0% $-374	+5% $-228	+10% $-83
Rate	-1.0pp $-147	-0.5pp $-259	base $-374	+0.5pp $-490	+1.0pp $-609

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2511 W Queen Creek Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.5–3.0	1222	$3,998	$3.27	45d	17	0.04mi
2511 W Queen Creek Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.5–3.0	1222	$3,950	$3.23	24d	17	0.04mi
2511 W Queen Creek Rd #442 Chandler, AZ	2.0	3.0	1584	$4,725	$2.98	0d	1	0.05mi
2511 W Queen Creek Rd #247 Chandler, AZ	1.0	1.5	1011	$3,937	$3.89	0d	1	0.06mi
2511 W Queen Creek Rd #160 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1346	$3,800	$2.82	0d	1	0.07mi
2511 W Queen Creek Rd #260 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1346	$4,500	$3.34	0d	1	0.07mi
2511 W Queen Creek Rd #460 Chandler, AZ	3.0	3.0	1556	$5,750	$3.70	0d	1	0.07mi
2511 W Queen Creek Rd #356 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1346	$5,700	$4.23	0d	1	0.07mi
2511 W Queen Creek Rd #173 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1445	$4,000	$2.77	4d	1	0.10mi
1889 W Queen Creek Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	930	$2,162	$2.32	4d	15	0.29mi
2471 W Edgewater Way Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1072	$2,253	$2.10	24d	1	0.31mi
2471 W Edgewater Way Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1076	$2,113	$1.96	5d	1	0.31mi
2471 W Edgewater Way Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1294	$2,170	$1.68	0d	1	0.31mi
2441 W Indigo Dr Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,350	$1.53	45d	1	0.49mi
2281 W Redwood Dr Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1568	$2,300	$1.47	45d	1	0.87mi
2222 S Dobson Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1004	$1,820	$1.81	0d	20	0.97mi
2255 W Germann Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1085	$1,862	$1.71	0d	25	0.99mi
1901 W Germann Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$1,991	$1.95	0d	13	1.09mi
2042 W Periwinkle Way Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1311	$5,000	$3.81	17d	1	1.10mi
2037 W Periwinkle Way Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1610	$3,100	$1.93	26d	1	1.12mi
1833 W Periwinkle Way Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1338	$3,000	$2.24	14d	1	1.14mi
3999 S Dobson Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,876	$2.08	0d	17	1.16mi
3800 S Cantabria Cir Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1476	$3,198	$2.17	26d	3	1.21mi
2759 S Jackrabbit Dr Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.5	1273	$3,050	$2.40	45d	1	1.29mi
1616 W Germann Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$1,795	$2.06	0d	15	1.30mi
1913 W Grand Canyon Dr Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1614	$2,500	$1.55	26d	1	1.36mi
2450 S Apache Dr Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1317	$2,150	$1.63	0d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $592 · $7,104/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $450,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $450,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $450,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $450,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $450,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $450,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $450,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $450,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $450,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $450,000 Active 1134-char remark
17. 2026-04-29
    historical
18. 2026-01-13
    listed $450,000 Active
19. 2026-01-01
    historical
20. 2025-10-24
    price $490,000
21. 2025-04-30
    listed $500,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,647 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,970 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,323/yr (+$110/mo · 80.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,097
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$1,647
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,528
• − Management: −$3,528
• − HOA: −$7,104
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$12,258
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,942
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,541/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Chandler

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2508

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute B Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chandler, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 299,016
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 37,095
• Household income: $94,495
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.23%
• Current HPI: 265.2743
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.40%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $450,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $450,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $490,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-30 Listed $500,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,647 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.