103-105 Bates Dr

Viola, NY 10952

$650,000B-

8 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,904 sqft · Built 1995 · MultiFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $24,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax + insurance: −$1,866
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,040
• Net cashflow: $13,686/mo
• Annual: $164,230/yr
• Cap rate: 31.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 90.24%
• DSCR: 5.01
• 1% rule: 3.69%
• Cash to close: $182,000

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 4-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $650k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14k ($164k/yr) — positive. Per door: $7k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($24k rent vs $650k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($640k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $640k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,025 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Ramapo Central School District (Spring Valley) (suburban): math 22% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #576 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 429 units permitted in Rockland County in 2024 (231 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rockland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $650k implies a 1200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $182k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 31.6% vs local median 0.4% in Viola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.