103-105 Bates Dr · Viola, NY 10952

$650,000

8 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,904 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1995 10,019 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Sold as is. This is a short sale subject to lender 3rd party approval. Property will not be delivered vacant.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1995
• Listed 17 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 4-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14k ($164k/yr) — positive. Per door: $7k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($24k rent vs $650k).
• Recommended offer: $640k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.6% vs local median 0.4% in Viola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,025 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Ramapo Central School District (Spring Valley) (suburban): math 22% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #576 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 429 units permitted in Rockland County in 2024 (231 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $182k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($640k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $650k implies a 1200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $640,250 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 90.24%
• DSCR: 5.01
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 90.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.22×
• Total profit: $767,171
• Equity at exit: $96,917

10-year hold

• IRR: 93.9%
• Equity multiple: 10.86×
• Total profit: $1,793,859
• Equity at exit: $56,200

Cash invested: $182,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10952

• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $24,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax from tax record: −$1,595 /mo · $19,136/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,040
• Net cashflow: $13,686

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,676

Max offer price $650,000

Occupancy floor 38%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	4	1.5	$24,000
Total (2 units)			$24,000

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,500
• Closing costs: $19,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-02-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-16
   listed $650,000 Active
3. 2025-03-31
   listed $1,349,000 Active
4. 2012-10-22
   soldstatus $50,000
5. 2005-08-10
   soldstatus $166,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $19,136 · $1,595/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $19,136 · $1,595/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $288,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,410
• − Property taxes: −$19,136
• − Insurance: −$3,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$23,040
• − Management: −$23,040
• − Depreciation: −$18,909
• Taxable income: $164,214
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$39,411
• After-tax cash flow: $124,818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Ramapo Central School District (Spring Valley)
• NCES district ID: 3627810
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,547
• Composite: 25.6/100
• National rank: #7418
• State rank: #576 of 590 in NY

Livability — Viola

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1025
• US rank: #19972

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Viola, NY
• Population (ZIP): 47,169

Population outlook (Rockland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 339,642 people
• By 2030: 345,987 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 357,178 · +5.2%
• By 2050: 362,456 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 367,281 · +8.1%
• By 2100: 328,211 · -3.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Italian 5% Hispanic 5%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · German/W. Germanic 55% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockland

• 2024 margin: R (+11.8) · D 44.1% · R 55.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: 5.9pp · 2024: -11.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.8 2020: D+1.7 2016: D+5.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+5.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -671.35%
• Current HPI: 399.2068
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+290.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Listed $650,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-31 Listed $1,349,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $166,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $19,136 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.