8438 Jetty Glen Dr

Cypress, TX 77433

$330,000F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,798 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 141 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,565/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax + insurance: −$1,119
• HOA: −$113
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-936/mo
• Annual: $-11,229/yr
• Cap rate: 3.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.29%
• DSCR: 0.50
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $92,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-936 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (33.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (22.3% below list).
• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $220k (33.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Postma El (math 45% / reading 59%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 1,247 students, 45% FRL); Smith Middle (math 79% / reading 78%, grade A+, #19 of 1,662 statewide, top 1%, 2,057 students, 14% FRL); Cypress-Fairbanks J J A E P (12 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 19% FRL vs 43% district-wide (23 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 65% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cypress-Fairbanks ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 3008 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?