63-week 3 Avondale Ln #243

Avon, CO 81620

$16,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 913 sqft · Built 1998 · Timeshare · Pending · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,720/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$84
• Tax + insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$369
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$781
• Net cashflow: $2,393/mo
• Annual: $28,713/yr
• Cap rate: 190.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 658.73%
• DSCR: 30.31
• 1% rule: 23.25%
• Cash to close: $4,480

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath timeshare listed at $16k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($29k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $16k).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($16k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $16k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($111 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#220 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Eagle County School District No. RE-50 (town): math 22% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #39 of 86 in CO (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 456 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 387 units permitted in Eagle County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Eagle County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 190.7% vs local median 2.3% in Avon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.