63-week 3 Avondale Ln #243 · Avon, CO 81620

$16,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 913 sqft · Timeshare · 37 Days on market

Built 1998 $369/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Why rent when you can own this 1/20th deeded fractional share for week #3 plus 10 floating days. Located in the heart of Beaver Creek village, this 2-bedroom 2-bath condo ownership includes all Hyatt Residence Club and Hyatt Hotel exchange privileges

Key facts

• Garage
• Community pool
• Built 1998

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath timeshare listed at $16k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($29k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $16k).
• Recommended offer: $16k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 190.7% vs local median 2.3% in Avon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#220 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Eagle County School District No. RE-50 (town): math 22% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #39 of 86 in CO (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 456 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 387 units permitted in Eagle County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($111 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Eagle County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($16k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $15,520 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 23.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 190.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 658.73%
• DSCR: 30.31
• GRM: 0.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $115,951
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
210 Offerson Rd #R-112, Weeks 51 & 52	0.15mi	1/2.0 (-1)	986 (+8%)	10mo	$125,000	$127	66
63 Avondale Ln #333-Week 12	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,048 (+15%)	15mo	$26,000	$25	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 36.26×
• Total profit: $157,950
• Equity at exit: $10,706

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 78.18×
• Total profit: $345,781
• Equity at exit: $20,000

Cash invested: $4,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81620

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 456
• Price-to-rent: 0.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,720 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$84
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$20 /mo · $240/yr
• Insurance: −$7
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$369
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$781
• Net cashflow: $2,393

Break-even live

Break-even rent $691

Max offer price $16,000

Occupancy floor 31%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,404	-5% $2,398	+0% $2,393	+5% $2,387	+10% $2,382
Rent	-10% $2,099	-5% $2,246	+0% $2,393	+5% $2,540	+10% $2,687
Rate	-1.0pp $2,401	-0.5pp $2,397	base $2,393	+0.5pp $2,389	+1.0pp $2,384

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,000
• Closing costs: $480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $369 · $4,428/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2023-01-20
   status Pending
2. 2022-12-13
   listed $16,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 14 d/yr ≥72°F today · 37 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,640
• − Mortgage interest: −$896
• − Property taxes: −$240
• − Insurance: −$878
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,571
• − Management: −$3,571
• − HOA: −$4,428
• − Depreciation: −$465
• Taxable income: $30,591
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7,342
• After-tax cash flow: $21,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eagle County School District No. RE-50
• NCES district ID: 0803540
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $73,322
• Composite: 30.01/100
• National rank: #6360
• State rank: #39 of 86 in CO

Livability — Avon

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #17858

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B- Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Eagle County · 42,178 people
• City population: 10,870
• Metro: Edwards, CO
• Population (ZIP): 10,870
• Household income: $102,775
• Rent vs Own: 46.9% rent · 53.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 744.0

Population outlook (Eagle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,837 people
• By 2030: 59,258 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 60,698 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 60,206 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 54,326 · -6.1%
• By 2100: 47,000 · -18.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 23% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Eagle

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.4) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 23.1pp · 2024: 24.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.4 2020: D+29.8 2016: D+19.9 2012: D+14.7 2008: D+23.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.63%
• Current HPI: 363.7493
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Edwards, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2023-01-20 Pending — VMLS
• 2022-12-13 Listed $16,000 VMLS