8117 Mistywood Ln #9

Germantown, TN 38138

$329,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,220 sqft · Built 1980 · Townhouse · Active · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,929/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax + insurance: −$548
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$615
• Net cashflow: $41/mo
• Annual: $487/yr
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.53%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $92,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $329k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($487/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $293k (11.0% below list).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $293k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#83 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Germantown (suburban): math 51% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #4 of 139 in TN (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 245 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,020 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (1,041 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $153k; list at $329k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.