8117 Mistywood Ln #9 · Germantown, TN 38138

$329,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,220 sqft · Townhouse · 77 Days on market

Built 1980 7,405 sqft lot $148/sqft · 6% above area Est $310k · 6% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• ARV discount +4.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful 4BR/2.5BA Townhome in Germantown~Inviting Great Room w/ Vaulted Ceilings & Sun-Filled Windows Creating an Open, Airy Feel~Generously Sized Kitchen w/ Ample Cabinetry & Convenient Breakfast Bar~Dedicated Dining Room Perfect for Gatherings~Rare Sunroom Just Off the Kitchen w/ French Doors, Ideal for Relaxing or Entertaining~Spacious Primary Suite w/ Private Full Bath & Walk-In Closet~Two Additional Comfortable Bedrooms & Full Bath Located Downstairs~Versatile 4th Bedroom Upstairs w/ 1/2 Bath, Great for Guests, Office, or Bonus Space~Fresh Interior Paint~Private Fenced Patio for Outdoor Enjoyment~2 Car Garage w/ Covered Walkway for Easy Access

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1980
• Listed 77 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $329k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($487/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $293k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $293k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#83 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Germantown (suburban): math 51% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #4 of 139 in TN (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 245 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,020 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (1,041 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $153k; list at $329k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $292,942 (11.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.53%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,505
• List price: $329,000
• Delta: 6.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1624 Shadow Moss Ln #33	0.08mi	4/3.0	1,977 (-11%)	24mo	$322,500	$163	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-47,133
• Equity at exit: $49,055

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-22,614
• Equity at exit: $28,446

Cash invested: $92,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38138

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 245
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,929 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$411 /mo · $4,935/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$615
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,878

Max offer price $329,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,250
• Closing costs: $9,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1602 Bubbling Brook Dr Germantown, TN	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,900	$1.21	3d	1	0.14mi
7918 Farmingdale Rd Germantown, TN	4.0	2.5	1845	$2,595	$1.41	3d	1	0.42mi
7931 Nikerton Dr Germantown, TN	4.0	2.0	1911	$2,900	$1.52	3d	1	0.50mi
8131 Farmington Blvd Germantown, TN	3.0	2.0	1674	$2,395	$1.43	3d	1	0.61mi
7865 Grove Ct W Germantown, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1200	$2,711	$2.26	2d	33	0.63mi
8442 Farrah Ln Germantown, TN	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,500	$1.45	3d	1	0.69mi
2110 Wood Creek Dr Germantown, TN	4.0	2.5	2436	$2,795	$1.15	44d	1	0.87mi
1696 Hapano Dr Germantown, TN	4.0	2.5	2408	$3,200	$1.33	3d	1	0.87mi
8403 Pine Valley Ln Germantown, TN	4.0	2.0	2654	$2,750	$1.04	3d	1	0.95mi
7675 Charstone Dr Germantown, TN	3.0	2.5	1797	$2,291	$1.27	12d	1	0.97mi
7650 Charstone Dr Germantown, TN	4.0	3.0	2774	$2,456	$0.89	12d	1	1.03mi
661 Shelley Renee Ln Cordova, TN	4.0	2.0	1998	$2,150	$1.08	12d	1	1.13mi
1676 Miller Farms Rd Germantown, TN	4.0	3.0	2274	$3,650	$1.61	20d	1	1.18mi
1741 Magnolia Tree Rd Germantown, TN	4.0	2.5	2791	$2,950	$1.06	44d	1	1.25mi
1971 Vienna Way Germantown, TN	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,150	$1.34	44d	1	1.27mi
7472 Dove Field Cv Germantown, TN	5.0	2.5	2815	$3,250	$1.15	3d	1	1.35mi
1952 Newfields Rd Germantown, TN	4.0	2.5	2321	$2,900	$1.25	3d	1	1.38mi
8866 Forest Breeze Dr Cordova, TN	4.0	2.5	2755	$2,240	$0.81	3d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $329,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $329,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $339,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    price $339,000 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    Wonderful 4BR/2.5BA Townhome in Germantown~Inviting Great Room w/ Vaulted Ceilings & Sun-Filled Windows Creating an Open, Airy Feel~Generously Sized Kitchen w/ Ample Cabinetry & Convenient Breakfast Bar~Dedicated Dining Room Perfect for Gatherings~Rare Sunroom Just Off the Kitchen w/ French Doors, Ideal for Relaxing or Entertaining~Spacious Primary Suite w/ Private Full Bath & Walk-In Closet~Two Additional Comfortable Bedrooms & Full Bath Located Downstairs~Versatile 4th Bedroom Upstairs w/ 1/2 Bath, Great for Guests, Office, or Bonus Space~Fresh Interior Paint~Private Fenced Patio for Outdoor Enjoyment~2 Car Garage w/ Covered Walkway for Easy Access

16. 2026-04-27
    price $339,000 668-char remark

    Show marketing remark (668 chars)

    Wonderful 4BR/2.5BA Townhome in Germantown~Inviting Great Room w/Vaulted Ceilings & Sun-Filled Windows Creating an Open, Airy Feel~Generously Sized Kitchen w/Ample Cabinetry & Convenient Breakfast Bar~Dedicated Dining Room Perfect for Gatherings~Rare Sunroom Just Off the Kitchen w/French Doors, Ideal for Relaxing or Entertaining~Spacious Primary Suite w/Private Full Bath & Walk-In Closet~Two Additional Comfortable Bedrooms & Full Bath Located Downstairs~Versatile 4th Bedroom Upstairs w/1/2 Bath, Great for Guests, Office, or Bonus Space~Fresh Interior Paint~Private Fenced Patio for Outdoor Enjoyment~2 Car Garage w/Covered Walkway for Easy Access

17. 2026-04-02
    listed $350,000 Active 668-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    Wonderful 4BR/2.5BA Townhome in Germantown~Inviting Great Room w/ Vaulted Ceilings & Sun-Filled Windows Creating an Open, Airy Feel~Generously Sized Kitchen w/ Ample Cabinetry & Convenient Breakfast Bar~Dedicated Dining Room Perfect for Gatherings~Rare Sunroom Just Off the Kitchen w/ French Doors, Ideal for Relaxing or Entertaining~Spacious Primary Suite w/ Private Full Bath & Walk-In Closet~Two Additional Comfortable Bedrooms & Full Bath Located Downstairs~Versatile 4th Bedroom Upstairs w/ 1/2 Bath, Great for Guests, Office, or Bonus Space~Fresh Interior Paint~Private Fenced Patio for Outdoor Enjoyment~2 Car Garage w/ Covered Walkway for Easy Access

18. 2026-04-02
    listed $350,000 Active 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    Wonderful 4BR/2.5BA Townhome in Germantown~Inviting Great Room w/ Vaulted Ceilings & Sun-Filled Windows Creating an Open, Airy Feel~Generously Sized Kitchen w/ Ample Cabinetry & Convenient Breakfast Bar~Dedicated Dining Room Perfect for Gatherings~Rare Sunroom Just Off the Kitchen w/ French Doors, Ideal for Relaxing or Entertaining~Spacious Primary Suite w/ Private Full Bath & Walk-In Closet~Two Additional Comfortable Bedrooms & Full Bath Located Downstairs~Versatile 4th Bedroom Upstairs w/ 1/2 Bath, Great for Guests, Office, or Bonus Space~Fresh Interior Paint~Private Fenced Patio for Outdoor Enjoyment~2 Car Garage w/ Covered Walkway for Easy Access

19. 2012-10-15
    soldstatus $153,000
20. 2012-10-03
    historical
21. 2012-07-31
    listed $159,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,429
• − Property taxes: −$4,935
• − Insurance: −$1,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,812
• − Management: −$2,812
• − Depreciation: −$9,571
• Taxable loss: −$5,051
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,212
• After-tax cash flow: $1,700/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Germantown
• NCES district ID: 4700151
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $79,101
• Composite: 49.28/100
• National rank: #2026
• State rank: #4 of 139 in TN

Livability — Germantown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #9355

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Germantown, TN
• County: Shelby County · 895,435 people
• City population: 25,167
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 25,167
• Household income: $136,297
• Rent vs Own: 20.2% rent · 79.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 686.0

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 952,522 people
• By 2030: 952,970 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 945,842 · -0.7%
• By 2050: 928,211 · -2.6%
• By 2075: 877,898 · -7.8%
• By 2100: 794,112 · -16.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 6% Asian 5% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.4) · D 61.8% · R 36.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 27.4pp · 2024: 25.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.4 2020: D+30.4 2016: D+27.6 2012: D+26.1 2008: D+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -219.64%
• Current HPI: 208.886
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.19%
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+113.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $339,000 Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $339,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Listed $350,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Listed $350,000 Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2012-10-15 Sold (MLS) $153,000 Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2012-10-03 Delisted — Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2012-07-31 Listed $159,000 Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS