153 Deer Park Dr

Geneseo, IL 61254

$215,000D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,112 sqft · Built 1969 · SingleFamily · Active · 145 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,133/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$412
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $113/mo
• Annual: $1,352/yr
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.25%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (0.8% below list).
• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#45 in IL, #907 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Geneseo CUSD 228 (town): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #297 of 620 in IL (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Northside Elem School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #749 of 2,056 statewide, top 40%, 331 students, 0% FRL); Geneseo Middle School (math 15% / reading 20%, grade F, #450 of 665 statewide, top 69%, 591 students, 0% FRL); Geneseo High School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #107 of 693 statewide, top 17%, 809 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 18% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 32 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henry County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.