153 Deer Park Dr · Geneseo, IL 61254

$215,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,112 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 145 Days on market

Built 1969 0.92 ac lot $193/sqft · 39% above area Est $154k · 39% over $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

153 Deer Park Drive presents a 3 Bed/1 Bath ranch set on a spacious . 92-acre double lot. This home features an attached 2-car garage and a full basement complete with a wood-burning fireplace, offering excellent potential for additional living space, storage, or future finishing. The main level provides a practical and efficient layout with all living areas conveniently on one floor. An included adjacent lot adds exceptional value and flexibility-perfect for expanding outdoor living, future building opportunities, or simply enjoying extra space and privacy. Located in a neighborhood setting with a more open feel, this property offers the best of both worlds. Discover the possibilities wait

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Full basement
• Outdoor space

Tags

• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• FULL BASEMENT
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (0.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#45 in IL, #907 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Geneseo CUSD 228 (town): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #297 of 620 in IL (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Northside Elem School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #749 of 2,056 statewide, top 40%, 331 students, 0% FRL); Geneseo Middle School (math 15% / reading 20%, grade F, #450 of 665 statewide, top 69%, 591 students, 0% FRL); Geneseo High School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #107 of 693 statewide, top 17%, 809 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 18% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 32 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $189,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.25%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $154,422
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: 39.23%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
147 Central Park Ave	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,105 (-1%)	20mo	$144,000	$130	70
147 Central Park Ave	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,105 (-1%)	20mo	$144,000	$130	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-27,580
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-14,433
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61254

• Home prices YoY: -32.0%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,133 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$322 /mo · $3,864/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,990

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $234	-5% $173	+0% $113	+5% $52	+10% $-9
Rent	-10% $-56	-5% $28	+0% $113	+5% $197	+10% $281
Rate	-1.0pp $221	-0.5pp $167	base $113	+0.5pp $57	+1.0pp $0

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 145 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $215,000 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $215,000 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $215,000 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $215,000 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $215,000 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-02-06
    status Active
11. 2026-02-06
    historical
12. 2026-01-16
    status Active
13. 2026-01-16
    status Pending
14. 2026-01-14
    historical
15. 2025-12-18
    status Pending
16. 2025-12-18
    status Pending
17. 2025-12-13
    historical
18. 2025-12-02
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,864 · $322/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,372 · $364/mo
• Expected delta: +$508/yr (+$42/mo · 13.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,591
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,864
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,047
• − Management: −$2,047
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$2,137
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$513
• After-tax cash flow: $1,864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Geneseo CUSD 228
• NCES district ID: 1716350
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,288
• Composite: 22.91/100
• National rank: #7996
• State rank: #297 of 620 in IL

Livability — Geneseo

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #907

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 12,049
• Population (ZIP): 12,049

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,376 people
• By 2030: 45,920 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 42,829 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 39,606 · -16.4%
• By 2075: 31,848 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 23,503 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: English 9% Romanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.5) · D 36.8% · R 61.3% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.7pp · 2024: -24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.5 2020: R+21.4 2016: R+21.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.08%
• Current HPI: 157.4041
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,864 · +13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.