405 NW Mimosa Dr

Stigler, OK 74462

$135,900D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,112 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $979/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$713
• Tax + insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $-70/mo
• Annual: $-836/yr
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.20%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $38,052

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $136k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-836/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (28.0% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($940 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#159 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Stigler (town): math 20% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #151 of 270 in OK (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 138 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Haskell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Haskell County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $116k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.7% in Stigler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.