251 Patterson Rd Unit A27

Haines City, FL 33844

$190,000D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 560 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Active · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,538/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$80
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $2/mo
• Annual: $29/yr
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($29/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (19.0% below list).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $190k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.