251 Patterson Rd Unit A27 · Haines City, FL 33844

$190,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1994 2,993 sqft lot $80/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CENTRAL FLORIDA 55+COMMUNITY LIFESTYLE AT ITS BEST. .. .. FURNISHED and WELL MAINTAINED home offering 2 Bedrooms and 1.5 Baths with newer walk-in tiled shower. Open Floor plan with separate dining room off kitchen. All appliances convey (new refrigerator). Inside Laundry Room with stackable W/ D and lots of storage space. AC is 1 year old and roof is 9 years. West View Ridge Resorts is a GATED 55+ Community offering a recreational building, solar heated POOL and many, many more amenities and activities throughout the community. Close to restaurants/shopping/medical/major highways leading to our Florida Attractions and Beaches. Could be yours!! Call LA agent for your scheduled showing. SEE VIRTUAL TOUR.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Extra storage
• Spacious dining room

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• ONE LEVEL
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS DINING ROOM
• EXTRA STORAGE
• LARGE PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished status negotiable; Total living area reported as 1,040 (source: owner/public records)
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; Taxes and detailed financials excluded
• HOA & community: HOA required (annual fee $970 / $80.83 monthly); Association includes pool, recreational facilities, trash, and escrow reserves; Association approval required; Community features: Association-owned recreation, community mailbox, deed restrictions, golf carts allowed, senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: No specific parking details provided
• Security: Buyer approval required for community (association rules)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One level; Faces northeast
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porches; Patio; Awnings; Rain gutters; Mature landscaping; Asphalt road access; Lot dimensions 50 x 69

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Split bedroom layout; Window treatments (blinds, drapes)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($29/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $190k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,817 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-33,467
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-40,156
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,538 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $686/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,535

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
251 Patterson Rd Unit C13 Haines City, FL	2.0	1.0	532	$1,100	$2.07	23d	1	0.13mi
1131 Pomelo St Unit B Davenport, FL	1.0	1.0	415	$1,350	$3.25	23d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $190,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $190,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $190,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $190,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-03-25
    listed $205,000 Active
16. 2021-06-08
    soldstatus $89,900 Closed 712-char remark

    Show marketing remark (712 chars)

    CENTRAL FLORIDA 55+COMMUNITY LIFESTYLE AT ITS BEST. .. .. FURNISHED and WELL MAINTAINED home offering 2 Bedrooms and 1.5 Baths with newer walk-in tiled shower. Open Floor plan with separate dining room off kitchen. All appliances convey (new refrigerator). Inside Laundry Room with stackable W/ D and lots of storage space. AC is 1 year old and roof is 9 years. West View Ridge Resorts is a GATED 55+ Community offering a recreational building, solar heated POOL and many, many more amenities and activities throughout the community. Close to restaurants/shopping/medical/major highways leading to our Florida Attractions and Beaches. Could be yours!! Call LA agent for your scheduled showing. SEE VIRTUAL TOUR.

17. 2021-05-01
    status Pending 712-char remark

    Show marketing remark (712 chars)

    CENTRAL FLORIDA 55+COMMUNITY LIFESTYLE AT ITS BEST. .. .. FURNISHED and WELL MAINTAINED home offering 2 Bedrooms and 1.5 Baths with newer walk-in tiled shower. Open Floor plan with separate dining room off kitchen. All appliances convey (new refrigerator). Inside Laundry Room with stackable W/ D and lots of storage space. AC is 1 year old and roof is 9 years. West View Ridge Resorts is a GATED 55+ Community offering a recreational building, solar heated POOL and many, many more amenities and activities throughout the community. Close to restaurants/shopping/medical/major highways leading to our Florida Attractions and Beaches. Could be yours!! Call LA agent for your scheduled showing. SEE VIRTUAL TOUR.

18. 2021-04-30
    listed $89,900 Active 712-char remark

    Show marketing remark (712 chars)

    CENTRAL FLORIDA 55+COMMUNITY LIFESTYLE AT ITS BEST. .. .. FURNISHED and WELL MAINTAINED home offering 2 Bedrooms and 1.5 Baths with newer walk-in tiled shower. Open Floor plan with separate dining room off kitchen. All appliances convey (new refrigerator). Inside Laundry Room with stackable W/ D and lots of storage space. AC is 1 year old and roof is 9 years. West View Ridge Resorts is a GATED 55+ Community offering a recreational building, solar heated POOL and many, many more amenities and activities throughout the community. Close to restaurants/shopping/medical/major highways leading to our Florida Attractions and Beaches. Could be yours!! Call LA agent for your scheduled showing. SEE VIRTUAL TOUR.

19. 1996-10-18
    soldstatus $30,000
20. 1994-05-25
    soldstatus $11,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $686 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$891/yr (+$74/mo · 129.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$686
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,477
• − Management: −$1,477
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,261
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$783
• After-tax cash flow: $812/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1763.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-08 Sold (MLS) $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-30 Listed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1994-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $686 · +23.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.