953 Austins Rd

Buckingham Courthouse, VA 23936

$256,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 435 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,045/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,342
• Tax + insurance: −$427
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-154/mo
• Annual: $-1,845/yr
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.57%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $71,680

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $256k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-154 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (20.1% below list).
• It's been on market 435 days — a 12% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $204k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#363 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Buckingham County Public School District (rural): math 36% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #117 of 131 in VA (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 96 units permitted in Buckingham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Buckingham County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 435 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.