953 Austins Rd · Buckingham Courthouse, VA 23936

$256,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · SingleFamily · 435 Days on market

Built 2025 3.31 ac lot $203/sqft · 14% below area Est $296k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This brand-new, thoughtfully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers the perfect blend of modern comfort and country charm, nestled on 3.31 serene acres. From the moment you step inside, you're greeted by a bright and airy open-concept living space, ideal for making memories with loved ones or simply relaxing in style. The spacious living room flows seamlessly into the gorgeous kitchen and dining area, creating a warm and welcoming heart of the home. You'll love the beautiful cabinetry, sleek countertops, and brand-new stainless steel appliances - all centered around a large island that's perfect for hosting, entertaining, or grabbing a quick bite. Just off the dining area, a convenient laundry room leads to the backyard, giving you easy access to outdoor space and nature. The private primary suite is generously sized and features a large closet and a stylish en-suite bathroom with dual sinks, a standing shower, and plenty of linen storage. Two additional bedrooms are located on the opposite side of the home, each with ample closet space and big windows, sharing a full second bathroom. This home is move-in ready and waiting for you - don't miss the chance to make it yours! Call today to schedule your private tour. Equal Housing Opportunity

Key facts

• Gorgeous kitchen
• Large island
• 3.31 acre lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• GORGEOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• CONVENIENT LAUNDRY ROOM
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• STYLISH EN-SUITE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $256k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-154 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#363 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Buckingham County Public School District (rural): math 36% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #117 of 131 in VA (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 96 units permitted in Buckingham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Buckingham County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 435 days — a 12% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,479 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 435 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.57%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,979
• List price: $256,000
• Delta: -13.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $129,661
• Equity at exit: $230,625

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.44×
• Total profit: $389,594
• Equity at exit: $497,352

Cash invested: $71,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23936

• Home prices YoY: 21.8%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,045 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,342
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$320 /mo · $3,840/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,239

Max offer price $233,749

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,000
• Closing costs: $7,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $256,000 Active 435 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $256,000 Active 434 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $256,000 Active 433 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $256,000 Active 432 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $256,000 Active 431 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $256,000 Active 429 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $256,000 Active 428 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $256,000 Active 426 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $256,000 Active 425 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $256,000 Active 424 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $256,000 Active 423 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $256,000 Active 420 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $256,000 Active 419 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $256,000 Active 418 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $256,000 Active 417 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $256,000 Active 416 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $256,000 Active 415 DOM
18. 2025-04-11
    listed $256,000 Active 1263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1263 chars)

    This brand-new, thoughtfully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers the perfect blend of modern comfort and country charm, nestled on 3.31 serene acres. From the moment you step inside, you're greeted by a bright and airy open-concept living space, ideal for making memories with loved ones or simply relaxing in style. The spacious living room flows seamlessly into the gorgeous kitchen and dining area, creating a warm and welcoming heart of the home. You'll love the beautiful cabinetry, sleek countertops, and brand-new stainless steel appliances - all centered around a large island that's perfect for hosting, entertaining, or grabbing a quick bite. Just off the dining area, a convenient laundry room leads to the backyard, giving you easy access to outdoor space and nature. The private primary suite is generously sized and features a large closet and a stylish en-suite bathroom with dual sinks, a standing shower, and plenty of linen storage. Two additional bedrooms are located on the opposite side of the home, each with ample closet space and big windows, sharing a full second bathroom. This home is move-in ready and waiting for you - don't miss the chance to make it yours! Call today to schedule your private tour. Equal Housing Opportunity

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,537
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,340
• − Property taxes: −$3,840
• − Insurance: −$1,280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,963
• − Management: −$1,963
• − Depreciation: −$7,447
• Taxable loss: −$6,296
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,511
• After-tax cash flow: $-334/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buckingham County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100540
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,158
• Composite: 35.58/100
• National rank: #4897
• State rank: #117 of 131 in VA

Livability — Buckingham Courthouse

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #14483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,992

Population outlook (Buckingham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,866 people
• By 2030: 16,625 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 16,108 · -4.5%
• By 2050: 15,588 · -7.6%
• By 2075: 14,125 · -16.3%
• By 2100: 11,701 · -30.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 40% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Buckingham

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.8% · R 61.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+13.2 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+2.4 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.71%
• Current HPI: 221.8804
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-04-11 Listed $256,000 Zillow