3879 Winn Rd

Sand Lake, MI 48737

$68,900B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1977 · Manufactured · Pending · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,059/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$361
• Tax + insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $413/mo
• Annual: $4,953/yr
• Cap rate: 13.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.67%
• DSCR: 2.14
• 1% rule: 1.54%
• Cash to close: $19,292

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $69k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $413 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $67k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $972 of equity ($476 loan paydown + $496 appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#528 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Oscoda Area Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #313 of 540 in MI (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Richardson Elementary School (math 37% / reading 35%, grade F, #725 of 1,397 statewide, top 52%, 672 students, 68% FRL); Oscoda Area High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #405 of 713 statewide, top 59%, 477 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Iosco County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Iosco County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $69k implies a 244% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.