3879 Winn Rd · Sand Lake, MI 48737

$68,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1977

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 1977 Manufactured home is in A-1 condition with all the interior furnishings included in the sale. It is located South of Glennie MI but just North of the AuSable River and adjacent to the Huron National Forest, location is everything!! Hunting, Fishing and thousands of miles of trails through the woods. The home has had many updates over the years from new windows, steel roof, furnace w/ central air, electrical panel and so on.

Key facts

• Wood stove
• Covered carport
• Storage shed

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• COVERED CARPORT
• ENCLOSED WORK SHOP
• WOOD STOVE
• STORAGE SHED
• GENERATOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $413 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#528 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Oscoda Area Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #313 of 540 in MI (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Richardson Elementary School (math 37% / reading 35%, grade F, #725 of 1,397 statewide, top 52%, 672 students, 68% FRL); Oscoda Area High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #405 of 713 statewide, top 59%, 477 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Iosco County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $972 of equity ($476 loan paydown + $496 appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Iosco County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $69k implies a 244% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $66,833 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.67%
• DSCR: 2.14
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.72% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $26,623
• Equity at exit: $22,524

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.56×
• Total profit: $68,765
• Equity at exit: $29,176

Cash invested: $19,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48737

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,059 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$361
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $407/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $537

Max offer price $68,900

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $452	-5% $432	+0% $413	+5% $393	+10% $374
Rent	-10% $329	-5% $371	+0% $413	+5% $455	+10% $496
Rate	-1.0pp $447	-0.5pp $430	base $413	+0.5pp $395	+1.0pp $377

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,225
• Closing costs: $2,067
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-16
   remarks 290-char remark
2. 2026-06-16
   price $68,900 Pending 48 DOM
3. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-16
   price $65,900
5. 2026-03-09
   listed $75,900 Active
6. 2016-03-01
   soldstatus $20,000 437-char remark

   Show marketing remark (437 chars)

   This 1977 Manufactured home is in A-1 condition with all the interior furnishings included in the sale. It is located South of Glennie MI but just North of the AuSable River and adjacent to the Huron National Forest, location is everything!! Hunting, Fishing and thousands of miles of trails through the woods. The home has had many updates over the years from new windows, steel roof, furnace w/ central air, electrical panel and so on.

7. 2016-03-01
   soldstatus $20,000 437-char remark

   Show marketing remark (437 chars)

   This 1977 Manufactured home is in A-1 condition with all the interior furnishings included in the sale. It is located South of Glennie MI but just North of the AuSable River and adjacent to the Huron National Forest, location is everything!! Hunting, Fishing and thousands of miles of trails through the woods. The home has had many updates over the years from new windows, steel roof, furnace w/ central air, electrical panel and so on.

8. 2016-03-01
   soldstatus $20,000

   Show marketing remark (437 chars)

   This 1977 Manufactured home is in A-1 condition with all the interior furnishings included in the sale. It is located South of Glennie MI but just North of the AuSable River and adjacent to the Huron National Forest, location is everything!! Hunting, Fishing and thousands of miles of trails through the woods. The home has had many updates over the years from new windows, steel roof, furnace w/ central air, electrical panel and so on.

9. 2015-01-31
   listed $24,900 437-char remark

   Show marketing remark (437 chars)

   This 1977 Manufactured home is in A-1 condition with all the interior furnishings included in the sale. It is located South of Glennie MI but just North of the AuSable River and adjacent to the Huron National Forest, location is everything!! Hunting, Fishing and thousands of miles of trails through the woods. The home has had many updates over the years from new windows, steel roof, furnace w/ central air, electrical panel and so on.

10. 2015-01-31
    listed $24,900 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    This 1977 Manufactured home is in A-1 condition with all the interior furnishings included in the sale. It is located South of Glennie MI but just North of the AuSable River and adjacent to the Huron National Forest, location is everything!! Hunting, Fishing and thousands of miles of trails through the woods. The home has had many updates over the years from new windows, steel roof, furnace w/ central air, electrical panel and so on.

11. 2015-01-28
    listed $24,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $407 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $734 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$327/yr (+$27/mo · 80.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,709
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,859
• − Property taxes: −$407
• − Insurance: −$344
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,017
• − Management: −$1,017
• − Depreciation: −$2,004
• Taxable income: $4,060
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$974
• After-tax cash flow: $3,978/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oscoda Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2626970
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,275
• Composite: 28.6/100
• National rank: #6714
• State rank: #313 of 540 in MI

Livability — Sand Lake

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #528
• US rank: #15900

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,457
• Population (ZIP): 1,121

Population outlook (Iosco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,366 people
• By 2030: 23,622 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 22,021 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 20,877 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 18,792 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 15,465 · -36.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 5% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Iosco

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.6) · D 34.0% · R 64.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.7pp toward R · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: -30.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.6 2020: R+28.6 2016: R+30.0 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.72%
• Current HPI: 129.3386
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+164.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — WWMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $65,900 WWMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $75,900 WWMLS
• 2016-03-01 Sold (MLS) $20,000 REALCOMP
• 2016-03-01 Sold (MLS) $20,000 REALCOMP
• 2016-03-01 Sold (MLS) $20,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-01-31 Listed $24,900 REALCOMP
• 2015-01-31 Listed $24,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-01-28 Listed $24,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $407 · +138.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.