18 W Otero Rd

San Rafael, NM 87051

$49,900B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,268 sqft · Built 1987 · Other · Active · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,260/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $680/mo
• Annual: $8,158/yr
• Cap rate: 22.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.39%
• DSCR: 3.60
• 1% rule: 2.53%
• Cash to close: $13,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $680 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#55 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Grants-Cibola County Schools (town): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #74 of 95 in NM (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: San Rafael Elementary (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #17 of 68 statewide, top 34%, 53 students, 100% FRL); Los Alamitos Middle (418 students, 100% FRL); Grants High (843 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 70% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 18% district-wide (+32 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Grants-Cibola County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP.
• Cibola County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.