18 W Otero Rd · San Rafael, NM 87051

$49,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,268 sqft · Other · 53 Days on market

Built 1987 0.27 ac lot ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LET'S GET MOVING!! SUPER HOME IN NEED OF A NEW OWNER TODAY!! Ready Today, Nice private lot, EZ access to town, SUPER VALUE!! 1Sty open ranch style house . .NEEDS YOU to make it HOME!EZ to SHOW and SELL!!!PLEASE go see TODAY, Send that OFFER and LET'S GET MOVING!!

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• Built 1987
• Listed 52 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level (1 story)
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Irregular lot

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Aluminum window frames

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $680 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#55 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Grants-Cibola County Schools (town): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #74 of 95 in NM (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: San Rafael Elementary (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #17 of 68 statewide, top 34%, 53 students, 100% FRL); Los Alamitos Middle (418 students, 100% FRL); Grants High (843 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 70% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 18% district-wide (+32 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Grants-Cibola County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Cibola County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.39%
• DSCR: 3.60
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $49,312
• Equity at exit: $22,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.22×
• Total profit: $114,872
• Equity at exit: $34,578

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87051

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,260 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $397/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $680

Break-even live

Break-even rent $399

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $708	-5% $694	+0% $680	+5% $666	+10% $652
Rent	-10% $580	-5% $630	+0% $680	+5% $730	+10% $779
Rate	-1.0pp $705	-0.5pp $693	base $680	+0.5pp $667	+1.0pp $654

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $49,900 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $49,900 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,900 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,900 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $49,900 95-char remark
17. 2026-04-30
    listed $54,900 Active 95-char remark
18. 2026-04-09
    soldstatus
19. 2026-04-02
    soldstatus
20. 2026-03-31
    soldstatus Closed 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    LET'S GET MOVING!! SUPER HOME IN NEED OF A NEW OWNER TODAY!! Ready Today, Nice private lot, EZ access to town, SUPER VALUE!! 1Sty open ranch style house . .NEEDS YOU to make it HOME!EZ to SHOW and SELL!!!PLEASE go see TODAY, Send that OFFER and LET'S GET MOVING!!

21. 2026-03-05
    status Pending 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    LET'S GET MOVING!! SUPER HOME IN NEED OF A NEW OWNER TODAY!! Ready Today, Nice private lot, EZ access to town, SUPER VALUE!! 1Sty open ranch style house . .NEEDS YOU to make it HOME!EZ to SHOW and SELL!!!PLEASE go see TODAY, Send that OFFER and LET'S GET MOVING!!

22. 2026-02-16
    price $69,900 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    LET'S GET MOVING!! SUPER HOME IN NEED OF A NEW OWNER TODAY!! Ready Today, Nice private lot, EZ access to town, SUPER VALUE!! 1Sty open ranch style house . .NEEDS YOU to make it HOME!EZ to SHOW and SELL!!!PLEASE go see TODAY, Send that OFFER and LET'S GET MOVING!!

23. 2026-01-27
    price $79,900 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    LET'S GET MOVING!! SUPER HOME IN NEED OF A NEW OWNER TODAY!! Ready Today, Nice private lot, EZ access to town, SUPER VALUE!! 1Sty open ranch style house . .NEEDS YOU to make it HOME!EZ to SHOW and SELL!!!PLEASE go see TODAY, Send that OFFER and LET'S GET MOVING!!

24. 2025-12-31
    price $90,000 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    LET'S GET MOVING!! SUPER HOME IN NEED OF A NEW OWNER TODAY!! Ready Today, Nice private lot, EZ access to town, SUPER VALUE!! 1Sty open ranch style house . .NEEDS YOU to make it HOME!EZ to SHOW and SELL!!!PLEASE go see TODAY, Send that OFFER and LET'S GET MOVING!!

25. 2025-12-16
    listed $95,000 Active 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    LET'S GET MOVING!! SUPER HOME IN NEED OF A NEW OWNER TODAY!! Ready Today, Nice private lot, EZ access to town, SUPER VALUE!! 1Sty open ranch style house . .NEEDS YOU to make it HOME!EZ to SHOW and SELL!!!PLEASE go see TODAY, Send that OFFER and LET'S GET MOVING!!

26. 2024-08-09
    price $51,900
27. 2024-07-27
    price $57,600
28. 2024-07-26
    price $57,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $397 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $399 · $33/mo
• Expected delta: +$2/yr ($0/mo · 0.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 4 d/yr ≥93°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$397
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,210
• − Management: −$1,210
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $7,808
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,874
• After-tax cash flow: $6,284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grants-Cibola County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501170
• Math proficiency: 14% —
• Reading proficiency: 22% —
• Median HH income: $35,996
• Composite: 18.23/100
• National rank: #14064
• State rank: #74 of 95 in NM

Livability — San Rafael

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #13282

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Rafael, NM
• Population (ZIP): 393

Population outlook (Cibola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,324 people
• By 2030: 25,594 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 24,117 · -8.4%
• By 2050: 22,568 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 18,653 · -29.1%
• By 2100: 12,719 · -51.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (52%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 31%
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Cibola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.6% · R 48.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: 29.6pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+23.8 2008: D+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-13.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $49,900 NMMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $54,900 NMMLS
• 2026-04-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-04-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-03-31 Sold (MLS) — Southwest MLS
• 2026-03-05 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $69,900 Southwest MLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $79,900 Southwest MLS
• 2025-12-31 Price Changed $90,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-12-16 Listed $95,000 Southwest MLS
• 2024-08-09 Price Changed $51,900 NMMLS
• 2024-07-27 Price Changed $57,600 NMMLS
• 2024-07-26 Price Changed $57,800 NMMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $397 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.