22 Willowyck Ct

Maryland Heights, MO 63146

$265,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,022 sqft · Built 1984 · Townhouse · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,125/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$430
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-453/mo
• Annual: $-5,431/yr
• Cap rate: 4.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.32%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-453 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (30.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (19.8% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $185k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#101 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Parkway C-2 (suburban): math 49% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #18 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ross Elem. (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 385 students, 32% FRL); Northeast Middle (math 33% / reading 47%, grade F, #185 of 391 statewide, top 48%, 703 students, 24% FRL); North High (math 35% / reading 70%, grade C-, #89 of 521 statewide, top 17%, 1,074 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 14% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Parkway C-2 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $265k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.