22 Willowyck Ct · Maryland Heights, MO 63146

$265,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,022 sqft · Townhouse public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1984 3,049 sqft lot $259/sqft · 52% above area Est $277k · at est. $430/mo HOA · 20% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Fabulous 3-bedroom, 3-bath open-concept Townhome style PUD featuring tasteful decor throughout. Upon entry, appreciate the thoughtfully designed bright eat in kitchen showcasing Cambria quartz countertops, custom cabinetry with a lazy Susan, luxury tile flooring, modern lighting, a stylish backsplash, refrigerator which will remain, dishwasher. stainless microwave and flat-top electric range. Upstairs, the versatile vaulted loft features a wood-burning fire place, provides flexible living space and opens to the deck overlooking mature trees. The spacious primary suite offers large windows and an updated en-suite bathroom with a shower. An additional bedroom and full remodeled bath with show

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Greatroom
• $430 HOA

Tags

• CAMBRIA QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• WOOD BURNING FIRE PLACE
• DECK OVERLOOKING MATURE TREES
• UPDATED EN SUITE BATHROOM
• GREATROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community of 25 units
• HOA & community: Thornhill Ridge Association; Monthly association fee of $430; Association manages grounds, parking/roads, common areas; includes sewer, trash, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Cable available; Natural gas connected; Phone available
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Private ownership; Three or more levels; Above-grade finished area recorded by assessor
• Construction: Brick veneer, frame, and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Private yard; Back and front yard; Landscaped grounds; Level lot with many trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total (2 upper level, 1 lower level)
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms (2 on main/upper levels, 1 on lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Open floor plan; Stone counters; Vaulted ceilings; Two wood-burning fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-453 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (30.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#101 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Parkway C-2 (suburban): math 49% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #18 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ross Elem. (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 385 students, 32% FRL); Northeast Middle (math 33% / reading 47%, grade F, #185 of 391 statewide, top 48%, 703 students, 24% FRL); North High (math 35% / reading 70%, grade C-, #89 of 521 statewide, top 17%, 1,074 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 14% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Parkway C-2 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $265k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,045 (30.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.32%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,182
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -4.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1909 King Arthur Ct	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,134 (+11%)	6mo	$335,000	$295	53
1923 Marine Terrace Dr Unit K	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	868 (-15%)	3mo	$154,990	$179	43
1935 Marine Terrace Dr Unit D	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	868 (-15%)	4mo	$155,000	$179	41
1948 Marine Terrace Dr Unit A	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	868 (-15%)	2mo	$145,000	$167	40
12818 Portulaca Dr Unit G	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	868 (-15%)	0mo	$139,900	$161	37
1923 Marine Terrace Dr Unit G	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	868 (-15%)	10mo	$150,000	$173	37
1912 Marine Terrace Dr Unit C	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	868 (-15%)	10mo	$140,000	$161	36
12818 Portulaca Dr Unit K	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	868 (-15%)	2mo	$139,000	$160	36
1911 Marine Terrace Dr Unit L	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	868 (-15%)	8mo	$140,000	$161	34
1961 Marine Terrace Dr Unit K	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	868 (-15%)	9mo	$140,000	$161	34
1960 Marine Terrace Dr Unit E	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	868 (-15%)	10mo	$155,000	$179	32
12824 Portulaca Dr Unit J	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	868 (-15%)	9mo	$139,900	$161	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $109,487
• Equity at exit: $238,733

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.51×
• Total profit: $334,370
• Equity at exit: $514,837

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63146

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,125 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,418/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$430
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,698

Max offer price $185,045

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-303	-5% $-378	+0% $-453	+5% $-528	+10% $-603
Rent	-10% $-621	-5% $-537	+0% $-453	+5% $-369	+10% $-285
Rate	-1.0pp $-319	-0.5pp $-385	base $-453	+0.5pp $-521	+1.0pp $-591

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12806 Willowyck Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,500	$1.72	45d	1	0.23mi
2037 Chablis Dr Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	780	$1,588	$2.04	0d	67	0.57mi
12545 Markaire Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–4.0	1420	$2,695	$1.90	12d	5	0.81mi
1951 Oberlin Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	993	$2,128	$2.14	0d	24	0.83mi
2207 Summerhouse Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	804	$1,573	$1.96	0d	20	0.93mi
1895 Boulder Springs Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1083	$3,091	$2.85	0d	6	1.07mi
12401 Boulder Springs Pkwy St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1006	$2,867	$2.85	0d	10	1.15mi
1231 Creve Coeur Crossing Ln Unit I Chesterfield, MO	2.0	2.0	868	$1,395	$1.61	0d	1	1.20mi
1173 Pompeii Dr Chesterfield, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,799	$1.89	0d	24	1.48mi
1432 Glenmeade Dr Maryland Heights, MO	3.0	2.0	1090	$2,176	$2.00	12d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $430 · $5,160/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $265,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $265,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    price $265,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $279,000 Active 1335-char remark
17. 2026-05-01
    historical $279,000 1335-char remark
18. 2024-11-12
    historical $1,850
19. 2024-11-03
    price $1,850
20. 2024-10-12
    listed $1,895
21. 1998-07-30
    soldstatus $119,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,418 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,570 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$153/yr (+$13/mo · 6.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$2,418
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,040
• − Management: −$2,040
• − HOA: −$5,160
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$10,033
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,408
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,023/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parkway C-2
• NCES district ID: 2923580
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $83,551
• Composite: 50.5/100
• National rank: #1851
• State rank: #18 of 324 in MO

Livability — Maryland Heights

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #6808

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 21,924
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,678
• Household income: $84,756
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1156.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Asian 17% Black 13% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.10%
• Current HPI: 711.49
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.96%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+121.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $265,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $279,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Coming Soon $279,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-12 Rental Removed $1,850 RENTEC
• 2024-11-03 Price Changed $1,850 RENTEC
• 2024-10-12 Listed for Rent $1,895 RENTEC
• 1998-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $119,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,418 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.