23820 Ironwood Ave #176

Moreno Valley, CA 92557

$128,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1977 · Manufactured · Active · 217 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,575/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax + insurance: −$213
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $1,150/mo
• Annual: $13,800/yr
• Cap rate: 17.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.50%
• DSCR: 2.71
• 1% rule: 2.01%
• Cash to close: $35,840

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $128k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $128k).
• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $885 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#838 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Moreno Valley Unified (suburban): math 23% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #1,050 of 1,400 in CA (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Honey Hollow Elementary (615 students, 78% FRL); Vista Heights Middle (1,382 students, 58% FRL); Canyon Springs High (2,266 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 66% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 86 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 3.9% in Moreno Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: paint — paint appears faded and needs touch-up
• Major: interior walls — paint appears faded and needs touch-up
• Major: landscaping — small garden areas need trimming and maintenance