50 Dumfries Dr

Dumfries, VA 22026

$119,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Pending · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,637/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $1,254/mo
• Annual: $15,052/yr
• Cap rate: 18.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.84%
• DSCR: 2.99
• 1% rule: 2.20%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#32 in VA, #789 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A.
• Prince William County Public School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #30 of 131 in VA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John F. Pattie Sr. Elementary (math 64% / reading 72%, grade B+, #366 of 1,108 statewide, top 33%, 924 students, 47% FRL); Potomac Middle (math 35% / reading 61%, grade C-, #247 of 342 statewide, top 74%, 919 students, 67% FRL); Potomac High (math 62% / reading 78%, grade B+, #151 of 319 statewide, top 49%, 2,065 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 31% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,418 units permitted in Prince William County in 2024 (625 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prince William County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 18.8% vs local median 3.5% in Dumfries — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: bathroom fixtures — Dated and worn fixtures
• Minor: bathroom flooring — Floral wallpaper