50 Dumfries Dr · Dumfries, VA 22026

$119,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 65 Days on market

Built 2003 Good condition $100/sqft · 70% below area ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home located in the desirable Grayson Village community. Built in 2003, this single-wide Clayton home combines modern convenience with a cozy atmosphere, making it an ideal choice for those seeking a comfortable living space. Step inside to find an open floor plan that maximizes space and natural light. The living area features an electric fireplace, perfect for creating a warm ambiance during cooler months. Ceiling fans throughout the home enhance airflow and comfort year-round. The upgraded countertops in the kitchen add a touch of elegance, while the well-appointed appliances-including a built-in microwave, dishwasher, electric oven/range, refrigerator, and icemaker-make meal preparation a breeze. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an en-suite bathroom featuring a soaking tub and stall shower, providing a relaxing space to unwind. The laundry area is conveniently equipped with a washer and dryer, ensuring that chores are easily managed. Outside, the property includes an attached carport and an asphalt driveway with additional off-street parking, accommodating multiple vehicles. The home is surrounded by the peaceful atmosphere of Grayson Village, offering a sense of community without the hassle of extensive maintenance. This property is not just a home; it's a lifestyle choice that combines comfort, convenience, and community. With no pool to maintain, you can spend more time enjoying your surroundings. Whether you're looking for a primary residence or a weekend getaway, this home meets a variety of needs. Don't miss the opportunity to make this well-maintained manufactured home your own. Schedule a viewing today to experience all that this property has to offer!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Upgraded countertops
• Private retreat

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• UPGRADED COUNTERTOPS
• WELL-APPOINTED APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.8% vs local median 3.5% in Dumfries — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#32 in VA, #789 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A.
• Prince William County Public School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #30 of 131 in VA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John F. Pattie Sr. Elementary (math 64% / reading 72%, grade B+, #366 of 1,108 statewide, top 33%, 924 students, 47% FRL); Potomac Middle (math 35% / reading 61%, grade C-, #247 of 342 statewide, top 74%, 919 students, 67% FRL); Potomac High (math 62% / reading 78%, grade B+, #151 of 319 statewide, top 49%, 2,065 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 31% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,418 units permitted in Prince William County in 2024 (625 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince William County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.84%
• DSCR: 2.99
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $405,210
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -70.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Prince William Cir	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	8mo	$120,000	$100	88
3565 Maple St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,284 (+7%)	12mo	$396,000	$308	70
17379 Tripoli Blvd	0.11mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,264 (+5%)	22mo	$389,000	$308	59
119 Kings Row Pl	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+10%)	22mo	$120,000	$91	58
3746 Hedgeman St	0.58mi	3/3.0	1,324 (+10%)	20mo	$385,000	$291	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $56,761
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.10×
• Total profit: $137,546
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22026

• Home prices YoY: -9.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,637 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,798/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $1,254

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,049

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,337	-5% $1,296	+0% $1,254	+5% $1,213	+10% $1,171
Rent	-10% $1,046	-5% $1,150	+0% $1,254	+5% $1,358	+10% $1,463
Rate	-1.0pp $1,315	-0.5pp $1,285	base $1,254	+0.5pp $1,223	+1.0pp $1,192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17360 Tripoli Blvd Dumfries, VA	3.0	1.0	1052	$2,790	$2.65	45d	1	0.09mi
3511 Briarwood Dr Dumfries, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	882	$2,185	$2.48	6d	8	0.20mi
3465 Dry Powder Cir Dumfries, VA	2.0	1.0–2.0	969	$1,960	$2.02	6d	11	0.38mi
3361 Yost Ln Unit 103 Dumfries, VA	2.0	2.0	967	$1,900	$1.96	45d	1	0.48mi
3153 Antrim Cir Dumfries, VA	2.0	2.0	1418	$3,000	$2.12	45d	1	0.68mi
3629 McDowell Ct Dumfries, VA	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,950	$1.52	45d	1	0.96mi
17045 Gibson Mill Rd Dumfries, VA	3.0	3.5	1170	$3,000	$2.56	45d	1	1.03mi
2325 McClellan Ct Dumfries, VA	3.0	2.5	1340	$2,207	$1.65	26d	1	1.06mi
1810 Fort Pulaski Ct Dumfries, VA	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,500	$1.89	14d	1	1.06mi
2424 Kilpatrick Pl Unit 1 Dumfries, VA	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,100	$1.59	17d	1	1.12mi
2424 Kilpatrick Pl Unit 1 Dumfries, VA	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,100	$1.59	45d	1	1.12mi
2902 Buell Ct Dumfries, VA	3.0	2.5	1300	$2,400	$1.85	6d	1	1.14mi
2819 Banks Ct Dumfries, VA	3.0	2.5	1300	$2,495	$1.92	0d	1	1.21mi
17950 Curtis Dr Dumfries, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	794	$1,715	$2.16	4d	1	1.27mi
2940 Shumard Oak Dr Woodbridge, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1012	$2,905	$2.87	0d	22	1.29mi
2940 Shumard Oak Dr Woodbridge, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1012	$2,744	$2.71	45d	17	1.29mi
3600 Jurgensen Dr Triangle, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0	800	$1,754	$2.19	0d	1	1.33mi
3600 Jurgensen Dr Triangle, VA	3.0	1.0	900	$1,903	$2.11	45d	1	1.33mi
3600 Jurgensen Dr Triangle, VA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,480	$1.85	4d	1	1.33mi
2930 Wetherburn Ct Woodbridge, VA	4.0	2.5	1386	$2,700	$1.95	13d	1	1.41mi
16500 Stedham Cir Montclair, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1028	$2,846	$2.77	0d	18	1.45mi
16649 Geddy Ct Unit A Woodbridge, VA	3.0	1.5	1260	$1,900	$1.51	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 1765-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1765 chars)

   Discover this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home located in the desirable Grayson Village community. Built in 2003, this single-wide Clayton home combines modern convenience with a cozy atmosphere, making it an ideal choice for those seeking a comfortable living space. Step inside to find an open floor plan that maximizes space and natural light. The living area features an electric fireplace, perfect for creating a warm ambiance during cooler months. Ceiling fans throughout the home enhance airflow and comfort year-round. The upgraded countertops in the kitchen add a touch of elegance, while the well-appointed appliances-including a built-in microwave, dishwasher, electric oven/range, refrigerator, and icemaker-make meal preparation a breeze. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an en-suite bathroom featuring a soaking tub and stall shower, providing a relaxing space to unwind. The laundry area is conveniently equipped with a washer and dryer, ensuring that chores are easily managed. Outside, the property includes an attached carport and an asphalt driveway with additional off-street parking, accommodating multiple vehicles. The home is surrounded by the peaceful atmosphere of Grayson Village, offering a sense of community without the hassle of extensive maintenance. This property is not just a home; it's a lifestyle choice that combines comfort, convenience, and community. With no pool to maintain, you can spend more time enjoying your surroundings. Whether you're looking for a primary residence or a weekend getaway, this home meets a variety of needs. Don't miss the opportunity to make this well-maintained manufactured home your own. Schedule a viewing today to experience all that this property has to offer!

2. 2026-03-27
   price $119,900 1765-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1765 chars)

   Discover this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home located in the desirable Grayson Village community. Built in 2003, this single-wide Clayton home combines modern convenience with a cozy atmosphere, making it an ideal choice for those seeking a comfortable living space. Step inside to find an open floor plan that maximizes space and natural light. The living area features an electric fireplace, perfect for creating a warm ambiance during cooler months. Ceiling fans throughout the home enhance airflow and comfort year-round. The upgraded countertops in the kitchen add a touch of elegance, while the well-appointed appliances-including a built-in microwave, dishwasher, electric oven/range, refrigerator, and icemaker-make meal preparation a breeze. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an en-suite bathroom featuring a soaking tub and stall shower, providing a relaxing space to unwind. The laundry area is conveniently equipped with a washer and dryer, ensuring that chores are easily managed. Outside, the property includes an attached carport and an asphalt driveway with additional off-street parking, accommodating multiple vehicles. The home is surrounded by the peaceful atmosphere of Grayson Village, offering a sense of community without the hassle of extensive maintenance. This property is not just a home; it's a lifestyle choice that combines comfort, convenience, and community. With no pool to maintain, you can spend more time enjoying your surroundings. Whether you're looking for a primary residence or a weekend getaway, this home meets a variety of needs. Don't miss the opportunity to make this well-maintained manufactured home your own. Schedule a viewing today to experience all that this property has to offer!

3. 2026-02-26
   listed $124,900 Active 1765-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1765 chars)

   Discover this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home located in the desirable Grayson Village community. Built in 2003, this single-wide Clayton home combines modern convenience with a cozy atmosphere, making it an ideal choice for those seeking a comfortable living space. Step inside to find an open floor plan that maximizes space and natural light. The living area features an electric fireplace, perfect for creating a warm ambiance during cooler months. Ceiling fans throughout the home enhance airflow and comfort year-round. The upgraded countertops in the kitchen add a touch of elegance, while the well-appointed appliances-including a built-in microwave, dishwasher, electric oven/range, refrigerator, and icemaker-make meal preparation a breeze. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an en-suite bathroom featuring a soaking tub and stall shower, providing a relaxing space to unwind. The laundry area is conveniently equipped with a washer and dryer, ensuring that chores are easily managed. Outside, the property includes an attached carport and an asphalt driveway with additional off-street parking, accommodating multiple vehicles. The home is surrounded by the peaceful atmosphere of Grayson Village, offering a sense of community without the hassle of extensive maintenance. This property is not just a home; it's a lifestyle choice that combines comfort, convenience, and community. With no pool to maintain, you can spend more time enjoying your surroundings. Whether you're looking for a primary residence or a weekend getaway, this home meets a variety of needs. Don't miss the opportunity to make this well-maintained manufactured home your own. Schedule a viewing today to experience all that this property has to offer!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,640
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,798
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,531
• − Management: −$2,531
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $13,975
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,354
• After-tax cash flow: $11,698/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home in Grayson Village is in good condition with a good rehab level. It has an open floor plan, modern appliances, and neutral paint. The bathroom needs some updates to enhance its resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor bathroom fixtures — Dated and worn fixtures
• Minor bathroom flooring — Floral wallpaper

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the space
• Resale Replace dated wallpaper in bathroom — Modernizes the space
• Resale Replace flooring in bathroom — Modernizes the space

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
bathroom fixtures · Dated and worn fixtures	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom flooring · Floral wallpaper	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the space ↑
• Resale Replace dated wallpaper in bathroom — Modernizes the space ↑
• Resale Replace flooring in bathroom — Modernizes the space ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince William County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103130
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $96,347
• Composite: 57.92/100
• National rank: #1041
• State rank: #30 of 131 in VA

Livability — Dumfries

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #789

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A Cost of living B- Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dumfries, VA
• County: Prince William County · 452,627 people
• City population: 42,253
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 22,897
• Household income: $124,318
• Rent vs Own: 28.3% rent · 71.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 571.0

Population outlook (Prince William County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,759 people
• By 2030: 582,629 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 665,916 · +23.4%
• By 2050: 740,796 · +37.2%
• By 2075: 900,980 · +66.9%
• By 2100: 985,833 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 24% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 10% Asian 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 6% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince William

• 2024 margin: D (+18.0) · D 57.6% · R 39.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.1pp toward D · 2008: 15.9pp · 2024: 18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.0 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+20.0 2012: D+16.0 2008: D+15.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.02%
• Current HPI: 289.8992
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.57%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $119,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $124,900 BRIGHT MLS