176 Casa Grande Dr

Red Bluff, CA 96080

$89,500C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 2020 · Manufactured · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,689/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax + insurance: −$535
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $330/mo
• Annual: $3,963/yr
• Cap rate: 16.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.24%
• DSCR: 2.61
• 1% rule: 1.89%
• Cash to close: $25,060

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $330 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $619 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#698 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: cost of living D, crime F, amenities F.
• Antelope Elementary (town): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #249 of 517 in CA (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Antelope Elementary (math 38% / reading 42%, grade F, #607 of 1,571 statewide, top 39%, 446 students, 58% FRL); Berrendos Middle (math 36% / reading 49%, grade D-, #143 of 498 statewide, top 29%, 251 students, 56% FRL); Red Bluff High (math 26% / reading 36%, grade F, #702 of 1,170 statewide, top 61%, 1,618 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 43% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 263 active listings in the ZIP; 186 units permitted in Tehama County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tehama County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 3.6% in Red Bluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.