176 Casa Grande Dr · Red Bluff, CA 96080

$89,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 26 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition Est $62k · 43% over ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Easy, stylish living in this 2020 manufactured home, located in a desirable senior community along the Sacramento River. With approximately 1,200 s. f. of living space, this home offers tall ceilings throughout, creating a bright and open feel. The floor plan features an open kitchen with island and breakfast bar, open to the living room, ideal for everyday comfort and entertaining. New wood laminate plank flooring, custom window treatments, fresh exterior paint and all the appliances stay gives it a move in ready appeal. Outdoor living is just as inviting with covered parking, a covered patio area, and additional space to relax, garden, or enjoy the peaceful surroundings of this space tuc

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Covered patio
• Open kitchen

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• WOOD LAMINATE FLOORING
• CUSTOM WINDOW TREATMENTS
• COVERED PARKING
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Carport; Concrete parking surface
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Located in Rio Vista Estates; 50-foot mobile home (model: CMH Manufacturing West/Clayton)
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio and porch; Porch; Patio; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fan(s); Laminate countertops; Walk-in closet(s); Double-pane windows; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $330 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 3.6% in Red Bluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#698 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: cost of living D, crime F, amenities F.
• Antelope Elementary (town): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #249 of 517 in CA (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Antelope Elementary (math 38% / reading 42%, grade F, #607 of 1,571 statewide, top 39%, 446 students, 58% FRL); Berrendos Middle (math 36% / reading 49%, grade D-, #143 of 498 statewide, top 29%, 251 students, 56% FRL); Red Bluff High (math 26% / reading 36%, grade F, #702 of 1,170 statewide, top 61%, 1,618 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 43% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 263 active listings in the ZIP; 186 units permitted in Tehama County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $619 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tehama County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,157 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.24%
• DSCR: 2.61
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $62,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
162 Casa Grande Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+8%)	4mo	$78,000	$60	82
142 Casa Grande Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (0%)	16mo	$40,000	$33	81
69 Casa Grande Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-7%)	6mo	$80,000	$71	76
90 Rio Vista Ln	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (0%)	14mo	$50,000	$42	75
110 Casa Grande Dr Unit Rio Vista Estates	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+4%)	21mo	$20,000	$16	69
500 Casa Grande Dr #171	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-4%)	22mo	$85,490	$74	69
90 Casa Grande Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,032 (-14%)	3mo	$13,000	$13	67
103 Rio Vista Ln	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+4%)	17mo	$45,000	$36	66
63 Casa Grande Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+8%)	18mo	$80,000	$62	66
106 Casa Grande Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,268 (+6%)	18mo	$18,000	$14	65
49 Casa Grande Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	20mo	$69,900	$52	60
45 Amber Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	18mo	$78,760	$59	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $3,427
• Equity at exit: $13,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $17,873
• Equity at exit: $7,738

Cash invested: $25,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96080

• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,689 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $854/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $330

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,271

Max offer price $89,500

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $381	-5% $356	+0% $330	+5% $305	+10% $280
Rent	-10% $197	-5% $264	+0% $330	+5% $397	+10% $464
Rate	-1.0pp $375	-0.5pp $353	base $330	+0.5pp $307	+1.0pp $283

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,375
• Closing costs: $2,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,500 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,500 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,500 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,500 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,500 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,500 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,500 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   price $89,500 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $94,500 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $94,500 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $94,500 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,500 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $94,500 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,500 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,500 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,500 Active 6 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,500 Active 5 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $94,500 Active 4 DOM
19. 2026-05-27
    listed $94,500 Active
20. 2026-05-05
    price $94,500
21. 2026-04-01
    price $99,900
22. 2026-02-05
    price $104,900
23. 2025-12-26
    listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $854 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $854 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,272
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,013
• − Property taxes: −$854
• − Insurance: −$5,566
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,622
• − Management: −$1,622
• − Depreciation: −$2,604
• Taxable income: $2,992
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$718
• After-tax cash flow: $3,245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2020 manufactured home is in excellent condition with new updates throughout, making it move-in ready and ideal for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and outdoor furniture — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space.
• Both Smart home integration — Improves convenience and energy efficiency for potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and outdoor furniture — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space. ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Improves convenience and energy efficiency for potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Antelope Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0602760
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,985
• Composite: 32.77/100
• National rank: #5630
• State rank: #249 of 517 in CA

Livability — Red Bluff

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #698
• US rank: #21144

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tehama County · 31,554 people
• City population: 31,554
• Metro: Red Bluff, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,554
• Household income: $66,076
• Rent vs Own: 36.3% rent · 63.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 981.0

Population outlook (Tehama County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,058 people
• By 2030: 59,493 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 56,076 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 52,372 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 43,895 · -28.1%
• By 2100: 34,186 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 13% Native American 3% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Tehama

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.8) · D 27.9% · R 69.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -41.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.8 2020: R+35.6 2016: R+36.8 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.80%
• Current HPI: 246.877
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Red Bluff, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-14.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $94,500 TCAOR
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $94,500 TCAOR
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $99,900 TCAOR
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $104,900 TCAOR
• 2025-12-26 Listed $110,000 TCAOR

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $854 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.