46 Horseshoe Dr

Waterbury, CT 06706

$399,999D-

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,352 sqft · Built 1975 · MultiFamily · Under Contract · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,636/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax + insurance: −$1,091
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$764
• Net cashflow: $-316/mo
• Annual: $-3,794/yr
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.39%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $112,000

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-316 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $344k (14.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $364k (9.1% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $344k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#32 in CT, #2,205 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, employment D.
• Waterbury School District (suburban): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #148 of 153 in CT (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 502 units permitted in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region in 2024 (171 in 5+ unit buildings).
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.5% in Waterbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,636/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 801% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.