46 Horseshoe Dr · Waterbury, CT 06706

$399,999

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,352 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1975 6,098 sqft lot $170/sqft · 51% above area Est $396k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Welcome to 46 Horseshoe Drive! A rare opportunity in the sought-after Longmeadow Heights community! Perched high w/ sweeping, panoramic views, this original-owner, side-by-side duplex offers the charm of a classic colonial with the built-in financial flexibility of a two-family home. The "Madison" style layout gives the property strong curb appeal and the feel of a single-family home while quietly delivering smart income potential. Each unit mirrors the other w/ 3 spacious BR, 1.5 BA & an open-concept kitchen/dining area, along with private entrances that provide a true sense of independence for both sides. Finished walk-out LL expand the living space, offering flexibility f

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 1975

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Assessed value available

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; 3 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Public sewer connected; Electric service
• Home design: Multi-family (2-family) property
• Construction: Frame construction; Vinyl siding; Concrete foundation; Asphalt shingle roof; Green exterior color
• Exterior features: Deck; City views; Level lot; Paved driveway

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heat; Window unit air conditioning
• Interior features: 10 total rooms; Full, partially finished walk-out basement; Window unit cooling
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located on lower level with basement hook-ups; Domestic hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-316 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $344k (14.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $364k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $344k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.6% in Waterbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#32 in CT, #2,205 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, employment D.
• Waterbury School District (suburban): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #148 of 153 in CT (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 502 units permitted in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region in 2024 (171 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,636/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 801% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $344,141 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.39%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $396,380
• List price: $399,999
• Delta: 0.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-4,578
• Equity at exit: $144,813

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $56,199
• Equity at exit: $199,001

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06706

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 18.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,636 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$924 /mo · $11,092/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$764
• Net cashflow: $-316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,036

Max offer price $344,141

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-90	-5% $-203	+0% $-316	+5% $-429	+10% $-543
Rent	-10% $-603	-5% $-460	+0% $-316	+5% $-173	+10% $-29
Rate	-1.0pp $-115	-0.5pp $-214	base $-316	+0.5pp $-420	+1.0pp $-525

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1.5	$3,636
Total (2 units)			$3,636

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Under Contract 1431-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $399,999 Active 1431-char remark
3. 2026-04-27
   historical $399,999 1431-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,092 · $924/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,092 · $924/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,632
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$11,092
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,491
• − Management: −$3,491
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$10,484
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,516
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waterbury School District
• NCES district ID: 0904830
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $40,040
• Composite: 14.85/100
• National rank: #9380
• State rank: #148 of 153 in CT

Livability — Waterbury

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #2205

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waterbury, CT
• County: New Haven County · 688,236 people
• City population: 115,012
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• Population (ZIP): 15,551
• Household income: $52,242
• Rent vs Own: 59.2% rent · 40.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 801.0

Population outlook (Naugatuck Valley County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 496,846

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% White 31% Black 25% Two or more races 12% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 25% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Estonian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Naugatuck Valley

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.4) · D 45.6% · R 53.0% · Other 1.4%
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.39%
• Current HPI: 309.8467
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $399,999 Smart MLS
• 2026-04-27 Coming Soon $399,999 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2023): $11,092 · +91.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.