8 bd · 4.0 ba ·
2,710 sqft ·
Built 1968
· MultiFamily
· Pending
· 7 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$6,400/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$3,666
Tax + insurance
−$1,556
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,344
Net cashflow
$-166/mo
Annual
$-1,987/yr
Cap rate
6.01%
Cash-on-cash
-1.02%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
0.92%
Cash to close
$195,720
Investor read
This is a 2 × 4-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $699k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-166 ($-2k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-83/mo.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $670k (4.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $640k (8.4% below list).
Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $640k (8.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#458 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Rocky Point Union Free School District (suburban): math 67% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #152 of 590 in NY (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Rocky Point Middle School (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B, #161 of 729 statewide, top 24%, 638 students, 36% FRL); Rocky Point High School (math 93% / reading 70%, grade A, #484 of 1,100 statewide, top 44%, 923 students, 32% FRL).
Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Current owner paid $388k; list at $699k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Sound Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-9J97KT7B2FZSR2
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29