1041 State Hwy 1809

Barbourville, KY 40906

$138,500D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Active · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,108/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$726
• Tax + insurance: −$231
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $-81/mo
• Annual: $-978/yr
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.52%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $38,780

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $138k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-81 ($-978/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (20.0% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $111k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($958 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#284 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Whitley County (rural): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #80 of 165 in KY (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Whitley County East Elementary School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #255 of 676 statewide, top 42%, 267 students, 85% FRL); Whitley County Middle School (math 31% / reading 50%, grade F, #57 of 217 statewide, top 26%, 563 students, 80% FRL); Whitley County High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 980 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Whitley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Whitley County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $138k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.1% in Barbourville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.