1041 State Hwy 1809 · Barbourville, KY 40906

$138,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured · 9 Days on market

Built 2000 2.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this picturesque property featuring a three-bedroom, two-bathroom home situated on a beautiful two-acre tract in Whitley County. Perched atop a hill, this property offers a lovely view and well-maintained landscaping. The covered front porch is the perfect place for a rocking chair or porch swing. Inside, you'll find updated and functional living space with a warm rustic log cabin feel. The sunny eat-in kitchen features a large island with seating for casual meals, appliances, and recessed lighting. The oversized living room is ideal for movie nights, with a fireplace providing cozy ambiance. The home offers three comfortable bedrooms, with a large bonus room attached to the

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Two acre tract
• Sunny eat in kitchen

Tags

• TWO ACRE TRACT
• WELL MAINTAINED LANDSCAPING
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SUNNY EAT IN KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• OVERSIZED LIVING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size: 2.00 acres (public records)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Block and pillar/post/pier foundation; Built area: 1,680 (building area total)
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Oven; Range; Eat-in kitchen with breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9 (includes bedrooms and other living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Primary bedroom on the first floor; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on main level; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-81 ($-978/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $111k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.1% in Barbourville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#284 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Whitley County (rural): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #80 of 165 in KY (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Whitley County East Elementary School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #255 of 676 statewide, top 42%, 267 students, 85% FRL); Whitley County Middle School (math 31% / reading 50%, grade F, #57 of 217 statewide, top 26%, 563 students, 80% FRL); Whitley County High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 980 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Whitley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($958 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Whitley County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $138k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,844 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.52%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.84% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $17,742
• Equity at exit: $68,904

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $63,042
• Equity at exit: $111,659

Cash invested: $38,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40906

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,108 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$726
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$173 /mo · $2,078/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $-81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,212

Max offer price $126,710

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $14	-5% $-34	+0% $-81	+5% $-129	+10% $-177
Rent	-10% $-169	-5% $-125	+0% $-81	+5% $-38	+10% $6
Rate	-1.0pp $-12	-0.5pp $-46	base $-81	+0.5pp $-117	+1.0pp $-154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,625
• Closing costs: $4,155
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $138,500 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $138,500 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $138,500 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $138,500 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $138,500 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $138,500 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $138,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,301
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,758
• − Property taxes: −$2,078
• − Insurance: −$692
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,064
• − Management: −$1,064
• − Depreciation: −$4,029
• Taxable loss: −$3,384
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$812
• After-tax cash flow: $-165/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Whitley County
• NCES district ID: 2105880
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $29,079
• Composite: 27.87/100
• National rank: #6874
• State rank: #80 of 165 in KY

Livability — Barbourville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #284
• US rank: #13792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,560

Population outlook (Whitley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,362 people
• By 2030: 34,807 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 33,525 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 32,550 · -8.0%
• By 2075: 29,555 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 24,308 · -31.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Black 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whitley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.3) · D 14.8% · R 84.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -47.7pp · 2024: -69.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.3 2020: R+65.2 2016: R+67.2 2012: R+57.8 2008: R+47.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.84%
• Current HPI: 180.8175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+201.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $138,500 ImagineMLS
• 2024-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2018-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 2011-04-06 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-02-18 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $249 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.