2435 Long St

New Johnsonville, TN 37134

$75,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,107 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Pending · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $976/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $332/mo
• Annual: $3,989/yr
• Cap rate: 11.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.99%
• DSCR: 1.85
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($976 rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#151 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Humphreys County (rural): math 21% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #103 of 139 in TN (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Humphreys County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Humphreys County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $61k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.